Israel's survival depends upon its deterring Iran from using non-conventional weapons against it. Israeli deterrence of Iran depends upon an ironclad promise that the attempted destruction of Israel will lead to the assured destruction of Iran.
The former Iranian President Rafsanjani has said that one Iranian nuclear weapon that lands on Tel Aviv will destroy "the Zionist entity". He spoke about Iran being willing to suffer millions of casualties in an Israeli retaliatory act, and still surviving. Iran's territory and population are many times vaster than Israel's and he bases his analysis on this point.
The first priority of Israel should be in preventing Iran from attaining nuclear weapons. There have been public declarations from Israeli leaders for close to twenty years on this subject. The United States has also publicly declared that it would not permit Iran to attain nuclear weapons. During that time, Iran has continued to build facilities and move its nuclear program forward. It has repeatedly insisted on its right to a nuclear capability; although, for European and American consumption, it has claimed it has no intention of developing a weapons capability. On the other hand, in internal discussions within the Iranian regime, the attaining of a nuclear weapon has been made a first priority.
Neither Israel nor the United States have taken any preemptive action to stop Iran's program. And it may well be that the point has already been passed that this can be done without leading to an Iranian response that, from Israel's point of view, would be disastrous. Thus, while preemption is the preferred alternative, it is not clear that this is still possible.
Israel is facing an enemy that proclaims that Israel's destruction is a major goal for it - and an enemy that most likely will soon have the weapons to realize that goal.
In response to this, Israel must formulate, and perhaps even put into law (however difficult and unprecedented this may be), its own deterrent doctrine. This doctrine must emphasize that any nuclear strike attempt made against Israel will be retaliated for by every means at Israel's disposal, with the goal of destroying the infrastructure of the Iranian state.
Making this response a 'doctrine' means removing it from the realm of uncertainty. The Iranians cannot be allowed to hope that world opinion or a weak Israeli leadership will save them from a retaliation that would be totally destructive of Iran. Iran cannot hope to escape punishment by using surrogates in the attack, thus leaving questions open as to their role (as Iran has done with the bombing of the synagogues in Buenos Aires and Turkey). Unless there is absolutely proven evidence to the contrary, Iran should be automatically held responsible for any WMD attack against Israel.
Iran must know that a strike against Israel means that its own destruction as a viable economic and political entity is assured. In such a case, it is unlikely that even the Rafsanjanis and the Khattamis of this world would dare take the risk.
At the same time, Israel should continue to reaffirm a formula it has used for many years: Israel will not be the first nation in the area to use nuclear weapons. Israel should make it clear that its only concern in relation to Iran is ensuring its own self-defense.
The former Iranian President Rafsanjani has said that one Iranian nuclear weapon that lands on Tel Aviv will destroy "the Zionist entity". He spoke about Iran being willing to suffer millions of casualties in an Israeli retaliatory act, and still surviving. Iran's territory and population are many times vaster than Israel's and he bases his analysis on this point.
The first priority of Israel should be in preventing Iran from attaining nuclear weapons. There have been public declarations from Israeli leaders for close to twenty years on this subject. The United States has also publicly declared that it would not permit Iran to attain nuclear weapons. During that time, Iran has continued to build facilities and move its nuclear program forward. It has repeatedly insisted on its right to a nuclear capability; although, for European and American consumption, it has claimed it has no intention of developing a weapons capability. On the other hand, in internal discussions within the Iranian regime, the attaining of a nuclear weapon has been made a first priority.
Neither Israel nor the United States have taken any preemptive action to stop Iran's program. And it may well be that the point has already been passed that this can be done without leading to an Iranian response that, from Israel's point of view, would be disastrous. Thus, while preemption is the preferred alternative, it is not clear that this is still possible.
Israel is facing an enemy that proclaims that Israel's destruction is a major goal for it - and an enemy that most likely will soon have the weapons to realize that goal.
In response to this, Israel must formulate, and perhaps even put into law (however difficult and unprecedented this may be), its own deterrent doctrine. This doctrine must emphasize that any nuclear strike attempt made against Israel will be retaliated for by every means at Israel's disposal, with the goal of destroying the infrastructure of the Iranian state.
Making this response a 'doctrine' means removing it from the realm of uncertainty. The Iranians cannot be allowed to hope that world opinion or a weak Israeli leadership will save them from a retaliation that would be totally destructive of Iran. Iran cannot hope to escape punishment by using surrogates in the attack, thus leaving questions open as to their role (as Iran has done with the bombing of the synagogues in Buenos Aires and Turkey). Unless there is absolutely proven evidence to the contrary, Iran should be automatically held responsible for any WMD attack against Israel.
Iran must know that a strike against Israel means that its own destruction as a viable economic and political entity is assured. In such a case, it is unlikely that even the Rafsanjanis and the Khattamis of this world would dare take the risk.
At the same time, Israel should continue to reaffirm a formula it has used for many years: Israel will not be the first nation in the area to use nuclear weapons. Israel should make it clear that its only concern in relation to Iran is ensuring its own self-defense.