From the moment John Kerry conceded defeat, Tony Blair has been calculating the debt George Bush owes him, and he is flying to Washington with the expectation that he will be paid in Israeli currency. The way 10 Downing Street figures it, while Bush invoked the British prime minister's name on the stump in token of his international approval, Blair's popularity in his own country plummeted. Blair knows that he is far more popular in America than he is at home. He also knows that George owes him big time and he is coming to the White House to collect every shekel.



"I have long argued that the need to revitalize the Middle East peace process is the single most pressing political challenge in our world today," Blair told reporters at 10 Downing Street immediately following Bush's reelection speech.



Then, without hesitation, Blair stunned reporters when he declared that the real way to fight worldwide terror is to "resolve the conditions and causes on which the terrorists prey." It was this same unimaginable message that moved former mayor Rudolph Giuliani to return Saudi Prince Al-Walid's $10 million dollar gift to the victims of 9/11: blame the victim for terror.



In short, slavery in North Africa and anti-Semitism in France is not on the European radar screen.



Now that Yasser Arafat has been dying every day for the past two weeks, the Europeans are thinking more seriously than ever about cities in the heartland of Biblical Israel where Jews don't belong. After all, the obstacle to "peace" died in a French hospital room. In their minds, Ariel Sharon's "excuse" for not moving ahead with the Road Map is being slipped into the grave. Moreover, when Sharon declared that "by the end of 2005, no Jew will be left in Gaza," he breathed new life into Blair's vision for the future of the Middle East.



The European Union considers Mahmoud Abbas a dependable Holocaust revisionist who isn't an uncontrollable hothead like Arafat. Mohammed Dahlan, the Gaza security chief who blew up an Israeli school bus, killing two teachers and maiming three siblings, also holds the European's keen interest and respect. Both Abbas and Dahlan dress like clever accountants rather than despotic hijackers, and they possess the kind of even sobriety that can bring Israel to its knees. The Europeans are confident that the heirs to Arafat's throne will be able to push Israel back to the Auschwitz lines of June 4, 1967.



Yet, Sharon has repeatedly declared that should attacks from Gaza on Israeli Negev towns and coastal plain regions continue following the disengagement, the IDF would immediately move back into the Strip. How will the Europeans ensure that the Israeli Defense Forces do not reenter the land they surrender to the PLO?



The EU's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, has been cooking up plans to place European peacekeeping forces in the Gaza Strip following Israel's withdrawal. These troops would be strategically positioned between Israeli forces and PLO terrorists, in order to make future IDF anti-terror incursions impossible.



The good news is that without America's support, the Europeans have little leverage against the Jewish state. The bad news is that Tony Blair is heading to Washington to collect on a sizable debt from the White House. Will George W. Bush remain "Israel's best friend" now that the elections are over?