Iran is continuing with its race toward acquiring nuclear weapons. In early August 2004, its defense minister announced that it has introduced a new, more reliable Shihab 3 missile, capable of reaching all parts of Israel and every US base in the Middle East. Both Shamkani, the Defense Minister, and Yadollah Javani, the head of the Revolutionary Guards political wing, threatened Israel with complete destruction if it attacked Iranian nuclear facilities.
The Iranians now boast that they can hit every place in Israel, including all places that Israel has missiles and also the nuclear reactor at Dimona. Their continuing development of nuclear capabilities combined with their ideological fervor, their hatred of Israel, makes them the most dangerous existential threat now facing Israel.
Their most recent announcements and threats came shortly after an Israeli Arrow missile successfully intercepted a Scud missile in a test made in California. And it may well be that the Iranians are troubled at the thought that the program they have invested heavily in for so long will be neutralized by superior Israeli technology.
Iran publicly defied the United Nations in its continuing its nuclear development program. In late June, Iran announced that it had broken the IAEA seals and resumed work, building centrifuges for its nuclear program. The IAEA knew about this beforehand, but did not go public with it. This is yet another sign of how ineffective the UN agency is in stopping the Iranian race to nuclear weapons.
Both President Bush and his Security Advisor Condeleezza Rice made statements in early August saying that the Iranian program is being watched by the US and in effect warned Iran against going nuclear. But these appear to be vain threats. Iran is ready to defy the whole world to continue its nuclear program and only military action will stop it. The US shows no sign of wanting to take on Iran now that it is involved in such a deeply problematic situation in Iraq. The US did not stop the Pakistani nuclear program and it is unlikely to take military action to stop the Iranian one.
The US continues to urge that the problem be taken to the Security Council. But it now seems most unlikely that the US will convince its European allies to go to the Council with the Iranian issue; it seems unlikely that the Security Council, with China and Russia as members, should this be done, would support sanctions against Iran. In other words, at this stage of the game, it is already clear that peaceful measures will not stop Iran. The US knows this, but while continuing to buy time for its own inaction, the US is in fact providing Iran more time to go on developing its nuclear program.
The US again shows no sign of being ready to attack the nuclear facilities of Iran. Ariel Sharon claims that there is strategic cooperation between the US and Israel on the Iranian nuclear question. What this means, however, no one knows. Bush may be gone by the end of this year and what will Sharon's strategic cooperation mean then? The US has made no public statements indicating support for any military action against Iran. This does not, however, mean it would necessarily veto, and not give certain political support to an Israeli military strike.
One possibility is that the US may be ready, if Israel decides to attack the nuclear facilities, to allow Israeli planes to fly over Iraqi airspace. Israel has apparently lost its Turkish option for airspace, in part because of the Islamic government that has taken over recently in Ankara.
Whether an Israeli attack is in the cards or not, and what time it might come, is not clear.
Why Israel, if it is going to attack Iran, has delayed to this point is also not clear. It could not have realistically believed diplomatic pressure would work. It perhaps wants to wait for the political option to exhaust itself, for it to be apparent to all the world that nothing but force will stop Iran. But there is a question of how wise it is to wait. as it is apparent that Iran is all the time enhancing its capabilities. As it is now, most estimates says Iran is one to two years away from a nuclear weapon. Once the Bushehr reactor, so close to completion by the Russians, goes online, destroying it becomes a much more costly operation both in terms of the civilian lives it takes and the radiation damage it causes. Some believe the reactor will be online this fall.
There has been much speculation regarding whether or not Israel has a military option. The Iranian sites are scattered, many underground, and perhaps there are significant ones well hidden. There is a possibility that Iran has constructed 'doubles' for many of the plants. The uranium fusion plants can be quite small and easily hidden.
Israel would have to hit at least six sites to impede the program. Prof. Michael Eisenstadt, one of the world's principal experts on Iranian military affairs, claims that the weak link for the Iranians may be the factory at Isfahan that produces the uranium hexafluoride that goes into the centrifuges. It is a relatively large facility and the only one of its kind known in Iran. A successful strike against it could delay the Iranian nuclear program for years. But there, too, it might be a double.
It is clear that there are many in the world who long for Iran to be stopped, but who will hypocritically condemn Israel if it does so.
Iran has the possibility of retaliating with its Shihab 3 missiles, with the Hizbullah missiles in Lebanon on the Israeli border and with the chemical weapons Syria has on its Scud missiles. The possibility of an Iranian retaliation that causes considerable damage and injury in Israel might well be deterring Israel from attacking Iran.
The Israeli government has done almost nothing to prepare the general public in Israel for the possibility of attacks by Iran and its allies. Aside from occasional threats and warnings to Iran that it would not allow it to go nuclear, Israel has not, to the public eye, indicated how it will counter the threat.
The present prime minister of Israel is certainly aware of the danger, but has not spoken publicly about an Israeli military operation to stop Iran. The Iranians recently have taken to bragging that Israel has no such option now that Iran has its Shihab 3.
The Shihab 3, however, may be at this point more a bluff than anything else. It carries a small payload and is not very accurate, and to truly be destructive it would have to be carrying a nuclear warhead. The high-pitched statements recently made by Iranian officials may mean that they are aware that they have no real response to an Israeli strike against them.
Nonetheless, as it looks now, Iran is on its way to nuclear weapons and no one in the world, except perhaps Israel, is ready to try and stop this.
This means that the prime minister of Israel is now facing a most critical decision as to whether it is wiser to desist from attacking Iran and thus rely on Israel's own nuclear weapons for deterrence, or risk taking considerable casualties now in order to avoid greater disaster later on.
The Iranians now boast that they can hit every place in Israel, including all places that Israel has missiles and also the nuclear reactor at Dimona. Their continuing development of nuclear capabilities combined with their ideological fervor, their hatred of Israel, makes them the most dangerous existential threat now facing Israel.
Their most recent announcements and threats came shortly after an Israeli Arrow missile successfully intercepted a Scud missile in a test made in California. And it may well be that the Iranians are troubled at the thought that the program they have invested heavily in for so long will be neutralized by superior Israeli technology.
Iran publicly defied the United Nations in its continuing its nuclear development program. In late June, Iran announced that it had broken the IAEA seals and resumed work, building centrifuges for its nuclear program. The IAEA knew about this beforehand, but did not go public with it. This is yet another sign of how ineffective the UN agency is in stopping the Iranian race to nuclear weapons.
Both President Bush and his Security Advisor Condeleezza Rice made statements in early August saying that the Iranian program is being watched by the US and in effect warned Iran against going nuclear. But these appear to be vain threats. Iran is ready to defy the whole world to continue its nuclear program and only military action will stop it. The US shows no sign of wanting to take on Iran now that it is involved in such a deeply problematic situation in Iraq. The US did not stop the Pakistani nuclear program and it is unlikely to take military action to stop the Iranian one.
The US continues to urge that the problem be taken to the Security Council. But it now seems most unlikely that the US will convince its European allies to go to the Council with the Iranian issue; it seems unlikely that the Security Council, with China and Russia as members, should this be done, would support sanctions against Iran. In other words, at this stage of the game, it is already clear that peaceful measures will not stop Iran. The US knows this, but while continuing to buy time for its own inaction, the US is in fact providing Iran more time to go on developing its nuclear program.
The US again shows no sign of being ready to attack the nuclear facilities of Iran. Ariel Sharon claims that there is strategic cooperation between the US and Israel on the Iranian nuclear question. What this means, however, no one knows. Bush may be gone by the end of this year and what will Sharon's strategic cooperation mean then? The US has made no public statements indicating support for any military action against Iran. This does not, however, mean it would necessarily veto, and not give certain political support to an Israeli military strike.
One possibility is that the US may be ready, if Israel decides to attack the nuclear facilities, to allow Israeli planes to fly over Iraqi airspace. Israel has apparently lost its Turkish option for airspace, in part because of the Islamic government that has taken over recently in Ankara.
Whether an Israeli attack is in the cards or not, and what time it might come, is not clear.
Why Israel, if it is going to attack Iran, has delayed to this point is also not clear. It could not have realistically believed diplomatic pressure would work. It perhaps wants to wait for the political option to exhaust itself, for it to be apparent to all the world that nothing but force will stop Iran. But there is a question of how wise it is to wait. as it is apparent that Iran is all the time enhancing its capabilities. As it is now, most estimates says Iran is one to two years away from a nuclear weapon. Once the Bushehr reactor, so close to completion by the Russians, goes online, destroying it becomes a much more costly operation both in terms of the civilian lives it takes and the radiation damage it causes. Some believe the reactor will be online this fall.
There has been much speculation regarding whether or not Israel has a military option. The Iranian sites are scattered, many underground, and perhaps there are significant ones well hidden. There is a possibility that Iran has constructed 'doubles' for many of the plants. The uranium fusion plants can be quite small and easily hidden.
Israel would have to hit at least six sites to impede the program. Prof. Michael Eisenstadt, one of the world's principal experts on Iranian military affairs, claims that the weak link for the Iranians may be the factory at Isfahan that produces the uranium hexafluoride that goes into the centrifuges. It is a relatively large facility and the only one of its kind known in Iran. A successful strike against it could delay the Iranian nuclear program for years. But there, too, it might be a double.
It is clear that there are many in the world who long for Iran to be stopped, but who will hypocritically condemn Israel if it does so.
Iran has the possibility of retaliating with its Shihab 3 missiles, with the Hizbullah missiles in Lebanon on the Israeli border and with the chemical weapons Syria has on its Scud missiles. The possibility of an Iranian retaliation that causes considerable damage and injury in Israel might well be deterring Israel from attacking Iran.
The Israeli government has done almost nothing to prepare the general public in Israel for the possibility of attacks by Iran and its allies. Aside from occasional threats and warnings to Iran that it would not allow it to go nuclear, Israel has not, to the public eye, indicated how it will counter the threat.
The present prime minister of Israel is certainly aware of the danger, but has not spoken publicly about an Israeli military operation to stop Iran. The Iranians recently have taken to bragging that Israel has no such option now that Iran has its Shihab 3.
The Shihab 3, however, may be at this point more a bluff than anything else. It carries a small payload and is not very accurate, and to truly be destructive it would have to be carrying a nuclear warhead. The high-pitched statements recently made by Iranian officials may mean that they are aware that they have no real response to an Israeli strike against them.
Nonetheless, as it looks now, Iran is on its way to nuclear weapons and no one in the world, except perhaps Israel, is ready to try and stop this.
This means that the prime minister of Israel is now facing a most critical decision as to whether it is wiser to desist from attacking Iran and thus rely on Israel's own nuclear weapons for deterrence, or risk taking considerable casualties now in order to avoid greater disaster later on.