One of the principal aims of the Palestinian terror war - or as historian Joel Fishman has called it, the Communist inspired 'people's war' - that was opened against Israel in September 2000 was to destroy the Israeli economy. As the Palestinian attacks coincided with a worldwide slowdown in economic activity, including a particularly sharp fall in the hi-tech sector so important to Israel, it appeared for some time that they were succeeding. This impression of their success was strengthened by the dramatic decline in tourism to Israel during that time.
But now it is becoming apparent that Israel is coming out of the 'serious economic downturn' it has been in. There is a rise in GNP and a clear increase in activity in many areas of the economy, most especially hi-tech. There is also a considerable increase in the number of tourists. Economists are now forecasting a vigorous growth rate for the Israeli economy for the next few years. There will remain problems with the economy, including the relatively high rate of unemployment due to structural changes in the economy, but on the whole, Israel will have shown itself to have defeated the economic part of the Palestinian plan.
The Palestinian war launched after Yasser Arafat rejected Ehud Barak's over-generous peace offer had as its major aim the forcing of more and more concessions of land from the Jewish state. The effort was to put Israel in the position of weakness, where it would be suing for quiet by ceding land. The recent rejection by the Likud party members of Ariel Sharon's Gaza withdrawal plan showed that in this area, too, the Palestinians are far from having forwarded, much less realized, their goals. Not only are the Palestinians now not being offered eastern Jerusalem and all of Judea, Samaria and Gaza (as Barak offered them), they are being told that they are not 'partners' for negotiation. The Sharon government in Israel intends to act unilaterally to put the Palestinians on one side of a fence and Israel on another. Moreover the stinging no given by Likud voters to Sharon's disengagement is a hopeful sign that the Palestinians will not be rewarded for their acts of terror. The danger here, of course, is that Prime Minister Sharon will nonetheless go ahead with his plan, even if at a slowed pace.
In a third area, that of actual damage done by terror efforts, there now has been considerable falling off in the number of successful terror attacks. The Israeli army has succeeded in neutralizing many of the leaders and their cadres. The terrorists talk of mega-attacks, but increasingly have difficulty carrying out the kinds of suicide bombings that had become their major weapon. In this area, too, the Palestinians seem to be losing the terror war. This does not mean that they will be completely prevented from murdering Jewish civilians (as the horrendous murder of the Hatuel family so painfully illustrates), but on the whole and overall, their frequency and level of operation has been seriously curtailed. They are, despite the mass of Oslo weapons and their continued weapons smuggling, far weaker as a military force than they were three years ago.
Yet, there is one area in which they have made a considerable gain in these last three years. It is not on the field of battle and not really through their own efforts. The US Road Map and commitment to a Palestinian state, a commitment amazingly seconded by the Israeli government, is their greatest achievement at this time. Whether they will translate it into reality, or be so completely lost in the world of terror as to not even be able to pretend to live in peace with Israel, is another question.
For Israel, there should be, on the part of the political leadership, a rethinking of the whole process, and a determination this time to translate military victory into political gain. In this regard, Prime Minister Sharon would do well to read the Elon Plan, and put aside forever the Bush Road Map, whose implementation can only lead to mortal danger for Israel.
But now it is becoming apparent that Israel is coming out of the 'serious economic downturn' it has been in. There is a rise in GNP and a clear increase in activity in many areas of the economy, most especially hi-tech. There is also a considerable increase in the number of tourists. Economists are now forecasting a vigorous growth rate for the Israeli economy for the next few years. There will remain problems with the economy, including the relatively high rate of unemployment due to structural changes in the economy, but on the whole, Israel will have shown itself to have defeated the economic part of the Palestinian plan.
The Palestinian war launched after Yasser Arafat rejected Ehud Barak's over-generous peace offer had as its major aim the forcing of more and more concessions of land from the Jewish state. The effort was to put Israel in the position of weakness, where it would be suing for quiet by ceding land. The recent rejection by the Likud party members of Ariel Sharon's Gaza withdrawal plan showed that in this area, too, the Palestinians are far from having forwarded, much less realized, their goals. Not only are the Palestinians now not being offered eastern Jerusalem and all of Judea, Samaria and Gaza (as Barak offered them), they are being told that they are not 'partners' for negotiation. The Sharon government in Israel intends to act unilaterally to put the Palestinians on one side of a fence and Israel on another. Moreover the stinging no given by Likud voters to Sharon's disengagement is a hopeful sign that the Palestinians will not be rewarded for their acts of terror. The danger here, of course, is that Prime Minister Sharon will nonetheless go ahead with his plan, even if at a slowed pace.
In a third area, that of actual damage done by terror efforts, there now has been considerable falling off in the number of successful terror attacks. The Israeli army has succeeded in neutralizing many of the leaders and their cadres. The terrorists talk of mega-attacks, but increasingly have difficulty carrying out the kinds of suicide bombings that had become their major weapon. In this area, too, the Palestinians seem to be losing the terror war. This does not mean that they will be completely prevented from murdering Jewish civilians (as the horrendous murder of the Hatuel family so painfully illustrates), but on the whole and overall, their frequency and level of operation has been seriously curtailed. They are, despite the mass of Oslo weapons and their continued weapons smuggling, far weaker as a military force than they were three years ago.
Yet, there is one area in which they have made a considerable gain in these last three years. It is not on the field of battle and not really through their own efforts. The US Road Map and commitment to a Palestinian state, a commitment amazingly seconded by the Israeli government, is their greatest achievement at this time. Whether they will translate it into reality, or be so completely lost in the world of terror as to not even be able to pretend to live in peace with Israel, is another question.
For Israel, there should be, on the part of the political leadership, a rethinking of the whole process, and a determination this time to translate military victory into political gain. In this regard, Prime Minister Sharon would do well to read the Elon Plan, and put aside forever the Bush Road Map, whose implementation can only lead to mortal danger for Israel.