Once again, Israel seems to be falling into the familiar pattern of military victory and political defeat.
The Palestinian terror war, which opened in late September 2001, and has led to over nine hundred Israeli deaths and thousands of injured, seems to be losing its force and momentum. The number of terror victims in 2003 was half that in 2002. There has been a great decline in the number of Palestinian successes, and whereas once, not a day went by without Israeli casualties, now it is sometimes tens of days and even weeks.
This does not mean, of course, that the Palestinians are not making terror efforts all the time. Defense Minister Mofaz recently spoke of tens of terror attempts thwarted every week. But apparently, Israeli intelligence, and the initiative and persistence of anti- terror units, have taken a serious toll on the Palestinian capacity for successful terrorist attacks. (Here it is possible to mention Arafat?s fear that another major Palestinian terror strike might put an end to his long career, but Arafat does not seem to have ever allowed himself in the past to devote himself to halting terror.)
With so many leaders of the terror groups hunted down, killed and captured by Israel, it now seems that the Palestinians are simply very weakened. This does not mean that they have stopped , or will stop, trying, it only means that they may be losing their capacity for new waves of terror, as opposed to an isolated success, of which they are still capable.
At the same time as Israel seems to be winning the terror war, the Prime Minister has chosen to announce plans to take two major steps. One is to erect a barrier wall, which is to be a temporary border. A certain part of this has already been built and terror experts say it has had a part in diminishing Palestinian terror. But its worrisome meaning for Jewish communities outside of the wall has not been clarified by the government.
The second item on Sharon?s agenda is his announcement that Israel will remove settlements, and continue to work for the realization of the Road Map and the creation of a Palestinian state. His only caveat is that should the Palestinians refuse to cooperate, refuse to do their part and dismantle terror organizations, Israel will be forced to go it alone. Israel will withdraw on its own.
The promise to remove settlements seems to many an Israeli caving in to terror, granting to the Palestinians an uncalled-for victory. Beyond this, Sharon?s pursuit of a Palestinian state seems a throughly misguided move, an unnecessary sap to the Americans for no good political or military reason. And this when there is a perception on the great part of Israelis that a Palestinian state will constitute a far greater danger to Israel than the current Palestinian Authority. The state, with its open borders, capacity to import millions of people, ability to cooperate with the armies of stronger Arab states, will constitute an enhanced military and demographic danger to Israel.
Now, it does not seem that the Palestinians are willing to take any of the preliminary steps required by the American Road Map plan before a Palestinian state is established. And it seems very unlikely before the end of the American elections that there will be any great American push and pressure on Israel. Nonetheless, the Sharon announcement of withdrawal, of a willingness to recognize a Palestinian state, represents a great potential danger. It suggests that terror has been and will be rewarded. It heartens the terrorists, and further confuses an Israeli public in search of real guidance and vision.
Even should one be cynical and say that Sharon is saying what he says to appease the world - i.e., that he does not intend to make any real withdrawal at all, and certainly not help establish a Palestinian state - the effect of his statements on the Israeli public mood is certainly negative. The declared concessions present an intolerable legacy and burden to any future Israeli prime minister, who will be seen as having to fulfill the commitment and promise made by the present one.
And all this, when it seems that there is no compelling reason for Israel to make any political concession whatever to the terrorist unit and leader that has been waging so cruel and inhumane a campaign against us.
The Palestinian terror war, which opened in late September 2001, and has led to over nine hundred Israeli deaths and thousands of injured, seems to be losing its force and momentum. The number of terror victims in 2003 was half that in 2002. There has been a great decline in the number of Palestinian successes, and whereas once, not a day went by without Israeli casualties, now it is sometimes tens of days and even weeks.
This does not mean, of course, that the Palestinians are not making terror efforts all the time. Defense Minister Mofaz recently spoke of tens of terror attempts thwarted every week. But apparently, Israeli intelligence, and the initiative and persistence of anti- terror units, have taken a serious toll on the Palestinian capacity for successful terrorist attacks. (Here it is possible to mention Arafat?s fear that another major Palestinian terror strike might put an end to his long career, but Arafat does not seem to have ever allowed himself in the past to devote himself to halting terror.)
With so many leaders of the terror groups hunted down, killed and captured by Israel, it now seems that the Palestinians are simply very weakened. This does not mean that they have stopped , or will stop, trying, it only means that they may be losing their capacity for new waves of terror, as opposed to an isolated success, of which they are still capable.
At the same time as Israel seems to be winning the terror war, the Prime Minister has chosen to announce plans to take two major steps. One is to erect a barrier wall, which is to be a temporary border. A certain part of this has already been built and terror experts say it has had a part in diminishing Palestinian terror. But its worrisome meaning for Jewish communities outside of the wall has not been clarified by the government.
The second item on Sharon?s agenda is his announcement that Israel will remove settlements, and continue to work for the realization of the Road Map and the creation of a Palestinian state. His only caveat is that should the Palestinians refuse to cooperate, refuse to do their part and dismantle terror organizations, Israel will be forced to go it alone. Israel will withdraw on its own.
The promise to remove settlements seems to many an Israeli caving in to terror, granting to the Palestinians an uncalled-for victory. Beyond this, Sharon?s pursuit of a Palestinian state seems a throughly misguided move, an unnecessary sap to the Americans for no good political or military reason. And this when there is a perception on the great part of Israelis that a Palestinian state will constitute a far greater danger to Israel than the current Palestinian Authority. The state, with its open borders, capacity to import millions of people, ability to cooperate with the armies of stronger Arab states, will constitute an enhanced military and demographic danger to Israel.
Now, it does not seem that the Palestinians are willing to take any of the preliminary steps required by the American Road Map plan before a Palestinian state is established. And it seems very unlikely before the end of the American elections that there will be any great American push and pressure on Israel. Nonetheless, the Sharon announcement of withdrawal, of a willingness to recognize a Palestinian state, represents a great potential danger. It suggests that terror has been and will be rewarded. It heartens the terrorists, and further confuses an Israeli public in search of real guidance and vision.
Even should one be cynical and say that Sharon is saying what he says to appease the world - i.e., that he does not intend to make any real withdrawal at all, and certainly not help establish a Palestinian state - the effect of his statements on the Israeli public mood is certainly negative. The declared concessions present an intolerable legacy and burden to any future Israeli prime minister, who will be seen as having to fulfill the commitment and promise made by the present one.
And all this, when it seems that there is no compelling reason for Israel to make any political concession whatever to the terrorist unit and leader that has been waging so cruel and inhumane a campaign against us.