While the latest turn of the 'Road Map' has predictably led to the same dead-end destination as Oslo, those of us who support continued Israeli sovereignty west of the Jordan River better understand the next moves of the Palestinian Authority. Like any good chess player, we must read and understand our opponent if we want to anticipate his or her next move.
Every time an Arab spokesman opens his mouth, he adds another 500,000 to the supposed population of Arabs in Judea Samaria and Gaza. And we repeat their claims, from Prime Minister Sharon on down, as if they are indisputable truth.
Their latest estimate is 3.6 million people, from a base of 1.8 million at the beginning of the Oslo Process. Add the 1.0 million Arabs in pre-?67 Israel and it is clear that the Palestinian Arabs will soon claim they have a majority between the River and the Sea. Next, their anti-Israel campaign will take on a similar style to that of the anti-South Africa campaign of the 1980s. "One person, one vote, one country." They will go for the whole thing, not a small state on part of the land. Armed with their supposed "majority", they will use the "one person, one vote" argument to undermine Israel's support in the US. Most issues in the US are viewed through the prism of the 1960s civil rights struggle. We will not know what hit us. There are ways to argue against such a demand by placing the responsibility for democracy on the Arab world, but let?s leave that for a later discussion.
The best way to take this tactic away from the Palestinian Arabs is to challenge the accuracy of their inflated figures.
Let's examine their claim of 3.6 million in the territories.
I'll use a "bottom-up" approach. Leaving Gaza aside for the analysis, let's just address the 2.3 million they claim in the "West Bank". First, let's list the population of the cities with major Arab population:
Hebron 200,000 Arabs (and I'm being generous to them)
Bethlehem 40,000
Ramallah 75,000
Nablus 200,000
Jenin 35,000
Kalkilya 35,000
Tulkarem 35,000
Jericho 40,000
That totals 660,000 for the cities.
To get to their figure of 2.3 million in Judea and Samaria, the rural population would have to be 2.5 times the population in the cities!
I recently completed a tour of Yesha (Judea, Samaria and Gaza). With a keen eye for population numbers I nervously looked over the ridge of Har Bracha to look down at Shechem (Nablus). I remember my reaction. I said to myself, "Is that it?" I had the same reaction in the Hebron area. The PA has claimed that 14% of their 3.6 million people live in the Hebron area. That's over 500,000 people. A city larger than Tel Aviv and almost as big as Jerusalem! My suspicions against their claims are hardly scientific, but it makes this good observer demand a recount.
I could go on. If we take the population counted by Israel at the beginning of Oslo, and take current PA figures, it would have demanded no less than 8% growth in population per annum. A fast growing population can grow at 3% per year - but 8% is unprecedented.
Add to this scenario, as the Jerusalem Post has reported, that over 80,000 Arabs have left the areas in question for other countries between only January and August of 2002. This same report quoted Palestinian Arabs who lamented that "transfer" was already starting to implement itself. However, many report that the absolute figure is unimportant, since the trend is against us. Well, strange things happen in a decade?s time. Mass aliyahs have occurred in less time. And one senses that the Palestinian Arab people might grow tired of the PA and choose jobs in Jordan, a new Iraq, or even Detroit. They won't go away completely, but to predict the trend in the midst of such chaos is foolhardy. Policies that address these trends are what will help us determine our future, because today, we still have a sizable majority.
Some organization or government must bring light to the truth on this issue. If we simply accept the PA figure without audit, we will be basing Israel's national existence on the basis of an Arab lie.
Every time an Arab spokesman opens his mouth, he adds another 500,000 to the supposed population of Arabs in Judea Samaria and Gaza. And we repeat their claims, from Prime Minister Sharon on down, as if they are indisputable truth.
Their latest estimate is 3.6 million people, from a base of 1.8 million at the beginning of the Oslo Process. Add the 1.0 million Arabs in pre-?67 Israel and it is clear that the Palestinian Arabs will soon claim they have a majority between the River and the Sea. Next, their anti-Israel campaign will take on a similar style to that of the anti-South Africa campaign of the 1980s. "One person, one vote, one country." They will go for the whole thing, not a small state on part of the land. Armed with their supposed "majority", they will use the "one person, one vote" argument to undermine Israel's support in the US. Most issues in the US are viewed through the prism of the 1960s civil rights struggle. We will not know what hit us. There are ways to argue against such a demand by placing the responsibility for democracy on the Arab world, but let?s leave that for a later discussion.
The best way to take this tactic away from the Palestinian Arabs is to challenge the accuracy of their inflated figures.
Let's examine their claim of 3.6 million in the territories.
I'll use a "bottom-up" approach. Leaving Gaza aside for the analysis, let's just address the 2.3 million they claim in the "West Bank". First, let's list the population of the cities with major Arab population:
Hebron 200,000 Arabs (and I'm being generous to them)
Bethlehem 40,000
Ramallah 75,000
Nablus 200,000
Jenin 35,000
Kalkilya 35,000
Tulkarem 35,000
Jericho 40,000
That totals 660,000 for the cities.
To get to their figure of 2.3 million in Judea and Samaria, the rural population would have to be 2.5 times the population in the cities!
I recently completed a tour of Yesha (Judea, Samaria and Gaza). With a keen eye for population numbers I nervously looked over the ridge of Har Bracha to look down at Shechem (Nablus). I remember my reaction. I said to myself, "Is that it?" I had the same reaction in the Hebron area. The PA has claimed that 14% of their 3.6 million people live in the Hebron area. That's over 500,000 people. A city larger than Tel Aviv and almost as big as Jerusalem! My suspicions against their claims are hardly scientific, but it makes this good observer demand a recount.
I could go on. If we take the population counted by Israel at the beginning of Oslo, and take current PA figures, it would have demanded no less than 8% growth in population per annum. A fast growing population can grow at 3% per year - but 8% is unprecedented.
Add to this scenario, as the Jerusalem Post has reported, that over 80,000 Arabs have left the areas in question for other countries between only January and August of 2002. This same report quoted Palestinian Arabs who lamented that "transfer" was already starting to implement itself. However, many report that the absolute figure is unimportant, since the trend is against us. Well, strange things happen in a decade?s time. Mass aliyahs have occurred in less time. And one senses that the Palestinian Arab people might grow tired of the PA and choose jobs in Jordan, a new Iraq, or even Detroit. They won't go away completely, but to predict the trend in the midst of such chaos is foolhardy. Policies that address these trends are what will help us determine our future, because today, we still have a sizable majority.
Some organization or government must bring light to the truth on this issue. If we simply accept the PA figure without audit, we will be basing Israel's national existence on the basis of an Arab lie.