One of the big stories from early in the Iraq war was the first Iraqi missile strike to reach Kuwait City. A low flying Silkworm missile of Chinese design (or an Iraqi knock-off) was launched from somewhere in the al-Faw peninsula, about 50 miles from Kuwait City. Because of its low trajectory, it was detected on the Patriot radar system.
Up to that point, every missile fired at Kuwait from Iraq had either been intercepted and destroyed by Patriots or had been off-target and landed harmlessly in the Persian Gulf. Those missiles ? Scuds and al-Samouds and the like ? were ballistic missiles, which go up high and then come down on their target. This missile was different ? it flew such a low trajectory that it could be launched from short range and evade the Patriots. It is essentially a type of cruise missile. Fortunately, the missile did not actually hit any buildings and, while it caused damage to the outside of a mall, it was late at night and few people were about, so no one was hurt. Still, it is very illuminating to note that this missile was launched by Iraqi forces (irregulars, fedayeen or whatever you want to call them) operating within an area that had coalition troops all over it.
Now, what does this have to do with Israel? Because of the distances involved, only ballistic missiles such as Scuds could be fired at Israel from Iraq. Between the extensive on-the-ground activities of US, British and Israeli forces in western Iraq and the robust anti-missile Patriot and Arrow systems guarding Israel, the chance of a successful missile strike at Israel from Iraq was low at the start of the war and is even lower now.
Yet suppose this same Silkworm-type of missile were being launched not from the al-Faw peninsula toward Kuwait City about 50 miles away, but instead from the Samarian mountains at Tel Aviv just 10 miles away. Unlike Scuds launched from Iraq, for which there would be several minutes warning enabling Arrow and Patriot to respond, there would be virtually no warning for Silkworms launched at such close range.
The proponents of a new Arab Palestinian state sitting in Judea and Samaria argue that such a state would be demilitarized. However, as we have seen, Iraqis were able to launch a Silkworm or similar missile at Kuwait from within territory that had thousands of British troops operating in combat mode. Pro-Saddam guerrillas also fired a Strela missile at an American transport plane. If coalition troops active in the area could not prevent the introduction of a missile of this type, how can anyone possibly expect that Israel would be secure from the introduction of similar missiles within a sovereign Arab Palestinian state to which Israel would not even be permitted to send its forces to search for such weapons.
The advent of advanced defense systems such as Arrow and Patriot do provide important protection from ballistic missile attack from a distance. However, as we have seen, such systems do not protect against short range, low trajectory weapons like the Silkworm. Indeed, Palestinian Arab terrorists are already launching Kassam missiles from within the Gaza Strip and may soon attempt to launch them from the Judean and Samarian mountains ? the threat from the Kassam is only limited insofar as their range is limited. Add to this, the fact that the Judean and Samarian mountains are well within firing range for conventional artillery. Put that together with a polity that in its mainstream still refuses to accept Israel?s existence as a Jewish state and it is all too clear that a new Arab Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would be a strategic nightmare for Israel and would multiply the chances of a general war.
© 2003 Stephen M. Asbel
Up to that point, every missile fired at Kuwait from Iraq had either been intercepted and destroyed by Patriots or had been off-target and landed harmlessly in the Persian Gulf. Those missiles ? Scuds and al-Samouds and the like ? were ballistic missiles, which go up high and then come down on their target. This missile was different ? it flew such a low trajectory that it could be launched from short range and evade the Patriots. It is essentially a type of cruise missile. Fortunately, the missile did not actually hit any buildings and, while it caused damage to the outside of a mall, it was late at night and few people were about, so no one was hurt. Still, it is very illuminating to note that this missile was launched by Iraqi forces (irregulars, fedayeen or whatever you want to call them) operating within an area that had coalition troops all over it.
Now, what does this have to do with Israel? Because of the distances involved, only ballistic missiles such as Scuds could be fired at Israel from Iraq. Between the extensive on-the-ground activities of US, British and Israeli forces in western Iraq and the robust anti-missile Patriot and Arrow systems guarding Israel, the chance of a successful missile strike at Israel from Iraq was low at the start of the war and is even lower now.
Yet suppose this same Silkworm-type of missile were being launched not from the al-Faw peninsula toward Kuwait City about 50 miles away, but instead from the Samarian mountains at Tel Aviv just 10 miles away. Unlike Scuds launched from Iraq, for which there would be several minutes warning enabling Arrow and Patriot to respond, there would be virtually no warning for Silkworms launched at such close range.
The proponents of a new Arab Palestinian state sitting in Judea and Samaria argue that such a state would be demilitarized. However, as we have seen, Iraqis were able to launch a Silkworm or similar missile at Kuwait from within territory that had thousands of British troops operating in combat mode. Pro-Saddam guerrillas also fired a Strela missile at an American transport plane. If coalition troops active in the area could not prevent the introduction of a missile of this type, how can anyone possibly expect that Israel would be secure from the introduction of similar missiles within a sovereign Arab Palestinian state to which Israel would not even be permitted to send its forces to search for such weapons.
The advent of advanced defense systems such as Arrow and Patriot do provide important protection from ballistic missile attack from a distance. However, as we have seen, such systems do not protect against short range, low trajectory weapons like the Silkworm. Indeed, Palestinian Arab terrorists are already launching Kassam missiles from within the Gaza Strip and may soon attempt to launch them from the Judean and Samarian mountains ? the threat from the Kassam is only limited insofar as their range is limited. Add to this, the fact that the Judean and Samarian mountains are well within firing range for conventional artillery. Put that together with a polity that in its mainstream still refuses to accept Israel?s existence as a Jewish state and it is all too clear that a new Arab Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would be a strategic nightmare for Israel and would multiply the chances of a general war.
© 2003 Stephen M. Asbel