I judge Moshe Arens to be a thoughtful man of great experience and integrity, so when he wrote, in Ha?aretz on November 12, that he was sorry to see early elections, I had to pay attention even while I shook my head. Why would this distinguished Likud war-horse string together these three contradictory thoughts: 1) "the Likud will substantially increase its representation in the next Knesset."; 2) "the more things change the more they stay the same."; And then, 3) "this election looks like a waste of time and a waste of money."
Well, it?s taken me a few days to figure out Arens? riddle, but I?ve finally come up with an answer that works for me. If Ariel Sharon emerges as the leader of the Likud, he might very well use the strength Israeli voters give the Right to cut a deal with the Left.
How could such an improbable scenario work itself out? Easy. If current polls are correct, the coming election will reduce Labor from 26 to 19 seats and increase the Likud from 19 to 40. That?s 59, still two shy of the 61 needed to govern, but 14 more than the two main ?national unity? partners have combined now. Of course, the smaller parties on the right should also increase their representation in roughly the same proportion, which would afford Mr. Sharon (or Mr. Netanyahu) the golden opportunity to form a strong government without the participation of Labor or any other party to its left. That would also be the normal course of events in a democracy since, through the ballot box, the people will have said that?s how they wanted to be governed.
But keep your ear to the ground. If you start hearing noises that sound like "disagreements, blackmail, rifts and stalemates" between the Likud and its potential coalition partners in the national camp, that could be all the cover Mr. Sharon would need to bolt the negotiations, pick up his 40 marbles and, "for the good of wartime Israel," walk them over to Peres & Co., the old, demented Oslo crowd. From that point, the hand full of additional MKs needed would be easily acquired for a few newly created minor cabinet posts and some shiny BMWs. We would then be back to Arens? square one, only worse. We?d have a democratic double-cross of historic proportions on our hands.
Of course, all this potential darkness could easily be avoided with the simple application of a little sunshine. The Likud party won?t pick its number one man until November 28. Before that, someone with a tape recorder needs to put this simple query to Ariel Sharon: "Mr. Prime Minister, if you emerge as your party?s leader and the general election produces a Knesset with a decisive majority for the Likud and the nationalist camp, would you consider forming a government with senior cabinet ministers from Labor or the left?" Then, that someone should ask Netanyahu the same question. The members of the Likud central committee can compare the two answers and decide if they want to break rocks and build a road or break rocks and risk having their leader throw away the pieces. After that, it?s in the electorate?s hands. They get to decide if the Likud is the genuine article, or as an alternative, not to take chances and create an ironclad mandate by moving the country even further to the right. That is the fail-safe option and the one I would recommend.
It?s a shame that it has to be this way, but as a politician, former IDF General Sharon?s level of acceptable Jewish casualties is much too high for my taste. So, Israeli voters have a right - no, an obligation - to wonder, as the next Prime Minister, will the General obey his orders? Or, put another way, who will he take his orders from? There are only two possibilities: the Jewish people or the US State Department.
By the end of January we will know for sure.
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Dovid Ben Chaim is a writer who lives in New York. He can be reached at dovidbenchaim@myway.com.
Well, it?s taken me a few days to figure out Arens? riddle, but I?ve finally come up with an answer that works for me. If Ariel Sharon emerges as the leader of the Likud, he might very well use the strength Israeli voters give the Right to cut a deal with the Left.
How could such an improbable scenario work itself out? Easy. If current polls are correct, the coming election will reduce Labor from 26 to 19 seats and increase the Likud from 19 to 40. That?s 59, still two shy of the 61 needed to govern, but 14 more than the two main ?national unity? partners have combined now. Of course, the smaller parties on the right should also increase their representation in roughly the same proportion, which would afford Mr. Sharon (or Mr. Netanyahu) the golden opportunity to form a strong government without the participation of Labor or any other party to its left. That would also be the normal course of events in a democracy since, through the ballot box, the people will have said that?s how they wanted to be governed.
But keep your ear to the ground. If you start hearing noises that sound like "disagreements, blackmail, rifts and stalemates" between the Likud and its potential coalition partners in the national camp, that could be all the cover Mr. Sharon would need to bolt the negotiations, pick up his 40 marbles and, "for the good of wartime Israel," walk them over to Peres & Co., the old, demented Oslo crowd. From that point, the hand full of additional MKs needed would be easily acquired for a few newly created minor cabinet posts and some shiny BMWs. We would then be back to Arens? square one, only worse. We?d have a democratic double-cross of historic proportions on our hands.
Of course, all this potential darkness could easily be avoided with the simple application of a little sunshine. The Likud party won?t pick its number one man until November 28. Before that, someone with a tape recorder needs to put this simple query to Ariel Sharon: "Mr. Prime Minister, if you emerge as your party?s leader and the general election produces a Knesset with a decisive majority for the Likud and the nationalist camp, would you consider forming a government with senior cabinet ministers from Labor or the left?" Then, that someone should ask Netanyahu the same question. The members of the Likud central committee can compare the two answers and decide if they want to break rocks and build a road or break rocks and risk having their leader throw away the pieces. After that, it?s in the electorate?s hands. They get to decide if the Likud is the genuine article, or as an alternative, not to take chances and create an ironclad mandate by moving the country even further to the right. That is the fail-safe option and the one I would recommend.
It?s a shame that it has to be this way, but as a politician, former IDF General Sharon?s level of acceptable Jewish casualties is much too high for my taste. So, Israeli voters have a right - no, an obligation - to wonder, as the next Prime Minister, will the General obey his orders? Or, put another way, who will he take his orders from? There are only two possibilities: the Jewish people or the US State Department.
By the end of January we will know for sure.
--------------------------------------------------------
Dovid Ben Chaim is a writer who lives in New York. He can be reached at dovidbenchaim@myway.com.