We ought to salute Hans Blix, Kofi Annan and the UN inspection team for offering themselves as quality hostages to Saddam Hussein.
I would assign a high probability to the UN inspection team being scooped up, individually or all together, by Saddam when he has used up every possible delaying tactic. When that inevitable line of demarcation is crossed over - that is, when the United States must definitely attack - Saddam will, at the moment of the inspectors? departure from Iraq, call them back or detain them. They will be quickly scattered to high value targets - weapons repositories - to serve as human shields from American attacks against these Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). This will presumably call an immediate halt to the planned American attack schedules. Then there will be a hue and cry from the United Nations, and specifically from those nations that offered the inspectors. They will say to President George W. Bush: "You cannot bomb those targets because our nationals are being held hostage there."
That will be the beginning of another long span of time filled with negotiations for the release of Saddam?s human shields. That should take another year, while Saddam continues to build and deploy his catastrophic weapons of mass destruction - including especially NBC (Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) weapons. There will be the interminable investigation, with charges and counter-charges - particularly if it looked like France and Russia were the authors of the pre-planning for this final delay. In the interim, be assured that France, Russia, China and North Korea would continue to ship whatever Saddam ordered through false front companies. Oil would be smuggled out through Syria, Jordan, Turkey -as has been the custom all along. In the meantime, the hostages would languish, although they might be well-treated so the Red Cross could testify to their well-being. The media would report ad nauseam the daily negotiations, like O.J. Simpson?s trial, until we just get tired of hearing about it.
By that time, Saddam?s possession of WMD would be of minor interest for the media. Saddam would have gained a great deal of time, or, at least, enough time to be able to threaten all of his neighbors with a nuclear strike. He would be left as King of the Middle East and, generally, untouchable.
All of this, of course, is merely a scenario, rife with possibilities. However, Saddam using the inspection team as hostages, and the perfect human shields, is an eventuality that will come to pass, with a very high degree of certainty.
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Emanuel A. Winston is a Middle East analyst and commentator.
I would assign a high probability to the UN inspection team being scooped up, individually or all together, by Saddam when he has used up every possible delaying tactic. When that inevitable line of demarcation is crossed over - that is, when the United States must definitely attack - Saddam will, at the moment of the inspectors? departure from Iraq, call them back or detain them. They will be quickly scattered to high value targets - weapons repositories - to serve as human shields from American attacks against these Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). This will presumably call an immediate halt to the planned American attack schedules. Then there will be a hue and cry from the United Nations, and specifically from those nations that offered the inspectors. They will say to President George W. Bush: "You cannot bomb those targets because our nationals are being held hostage there."
That will be the beginning of another long span of time filled with negotiations for the release of Saddam?s human shields. That should take another year, while Saddam continues to build and deploy his catastrophic weapons of mass destruction - including especially NBC (Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) weapons. There will be the interminable investigation, with charges and counter-charges - particularly if it looked like France and Russia were the authors of the pre-planning for this final delay. In the interim, be assured that France, Russia, China and North Korea would continue to ship whatever Saddam ordered through false front companies. Oil would be smuggled out through Syria, Jordan, Turkey -as has been the custom all along. In the meantime, the hostages would languish, although they might be well-treated so the Red Cross could testify to their well-being. The media would report ad nauseam the daily negotiations, like O.J. Simpson?s trial, until we just get tired of hearing about it.
By that time, Saddam?s possession of WMD would be of minor interest for the media. Saddam would have gained a great deal of time, or, at least, enough time to be able to threaten all of his neighbors with a nuclear strike. He would be left as King of the Middle East and, generally, untouchable.
All of this, of course, is merely a scenario, rife with possibilities. However, Saddam using the inspection team as hostages, and the perfect human shields, is an eventuality that will come to pass, with a very high degree of certainty.
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Emanuel A. Winston is a Middle East analyst and commentator.