In the Beirut daily As-Safir, editor Joseph Samaha says the terror attack in Indonesia has left counterterrorism experts wondering whether the US-led campaign is succeeding or if the enemy has managed to adapt and go on the counterattack.

Samaha notes that since the beginning of October, there have been arrests of alleged Al-Qaeda associates in Lebanon, Italy, Germany, Malaysia, the Philippines, Kuwait and the US. There have been trials in Germany, Holland, France and the US that have produced ?surprises? such as the contention that the Sept. 11 attacks were also intended to target the White House. There have been bombings in Saudi Arabia and Finland, shooting attacks on US troops in the Philippines and Kuwait, an attack on a French supertanker off Yemen, and the horrific bombing in Indonesia, accompanied by reports that an attempted attack on US diplomatic premises there was foiled.

While this has been happening, Al-Qaeda leaders have been resurfacing and broadcasting statements threatening their enemies and egging on their followers, Samaha notes.

?To make sure no one thinks these leaders are speaking in a vacuum,? there has been an upsurge of fighting in both Afghanistan and Kashmir. And the Americans, while reinforcing their military deployments around the world, have been cautioning their civilians against traveling, bringing their diplomats? families home, cracking down on visitors from abroad and expressing astonishment that they should find themselves targeted ?even in Kuwait.?

?The operation in Bali, following the latest elections in Pakistan, raises the prospect of huge blocs of humanity entering into the ring of radicalization,? Samaha warns. ?And it is no coincidence that the Australians are the most enthusiastic about participating in a war on Iraq, after they were the most enthusiastic about protecting the independence of East Timor,? he says.

Meanwhile, although Bush deems ?failed states? to be the principal source of terrorist threats, his policies are inexorably pushing a number of troubled countries toward ?failure,? Samaha asserts. ?The Indonesian authorities need only look at Pakistan to conclude that they should not act on Washington?s advice.

?Obviously this global panorama strengthens the case of those who argue against proceeding to war on Iraq, on grounds that such a war would increase hatred, fuel anarchy and jeopardize the necessary focus on combating terrorism,? Samaha says.

But the Bush administration appears intent on ignoring this argument, ?and the chaos it is promising the world could make the first half of October look like an interlude of peace.?