Jamal Ahmad Khashoggi, Saudi Arabian political analyst and an editor of the English-language Saudi newspaper, Arab News, published an article last week purporting to explain the behavior and motivation of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. The article is entitled ?Sharon isn?t out to kill Arafat or ruin the PA? and suggested that the Israeli leader?s ?actual goal is to weaken the Palestinians? will and destroy their aspirations for statehood and independence.? All other apparent goals are ?are all designed to bolster this negotiating position?? Even the Americans may be in on the ruse, claimed the Saudi author.
?Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon believes he has succeeded in fooling us all when he forced all the world?s leaders to question whether he was about to kill Palestinian President Yasser Arafat,? Khashoggi wrote, ?and what effects such an action would have on the situation in the Middle East? [His] warlike stance and the leaks about his intention to deport thousands of Palestinians?? is all a bargaining tactic. In fact, the Saudi article claimed, ?Sharon wants to negotiate according to the Oslo formula that gives priority to Israel?s security? But this time, negotiations will be conducted with a gravely wounded Palestinian side? Sharon is not only out for revenge even though he wouldn?t mind shedding some Palestinian blood?? In order to make sure that the Arabs ?feel forsaken by the whole world so that they will be ready to sign any scrap of paper laid out before them at the negotiating table,? the article asserted, Sharon had to ?humiliate the Palestinian people, break their spirit, and make them feel defeated, weak and hopeless? to destroy the Palestinians? self-confidence.? Oslo is the goal, Khashoggi asserted, yet later in the same article he made reference to ?Yitzhak Rabin, who espoused Oslo (in contrast to Sharon, who despises it)?? That explains why, according to Khashoggi, ?Arafat and his cronies, though humiliated in the opening stages of the Israeli operation, will be allowed to survive, because the Israelis and the Americans need them to sign up to the final settlement.?
Unwittingly playing their part in the trap, according to the article, are the Arab states. ?Arab leaders? are more worried about the effects of Arafat?s death on their own countries. They are more afraid of how their own peoples might react.? Arafat will then emerge ?impotent and more disappointed with the Arabs and the world than ever.? Once that is accomplished, predicted the author, then ?When the time comes, ?international pressure? will force Sharon to withdraw his troops from Palestinian towns. American troops will be deployed to keep the peace (Israel will strongly reject European participation because the Jews, who have never forgotten the Holocaust, don?t trust the Europeans). The PA will then be invited to the (American-sponsored) negotiating table, where former President Bill Clinton?s so-called generous offer will be revived.? At that point, ?US President George W. Bush will tell the weakened Palestinians that ?we couldn?t have gotten this generous offer had we not pressured Sharon. It is a great concession,? Bush will say, ?for which we are grateful. It is an expression of Sharon?s desire for peace.? ?Arab leaders will be subjected to enormous pressure to condemn Palestinian ?violence? and suicide attacks. They will also be made to pressure the Palestinians to accept the ?generosity? on offer. Scores of ?experts? will be produced to extol the virtues of the agreements, and to urge Arafat to sign.? However, the end result, predicted Khashoggi, will be that ?the Americans (who by this time would have forces on the ground) will insist that the PA implement security arrangements designed to safeguard Israel?s security to the letter. Israel, meanwhile, procrastinates, and the settlers will continue their provocations. Once the Palestinians respond to these provocations, the Americans will step in. Israel?s sensibilities will have to be respected ?because elections are due and it will be bad for the peace process to have a right-wing government in power.? As for tensions on the Palestinian side, well, the PA just has to deal with it by force.?
In describing the once and future US-sponsored offer, the Saudi newspaper stated, ?This offer (rejected by Arafat at Camp David and Taba) envisages giving the Palestinians control of 95 percent (some say up to 100 percent) of the West Bank and Gaza, together with part of East Jerusalem as a capital, the return of a limited number of refugees, and compensation of up to $30 billion all in exchange for signing an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict.? Yet, the article justified Arafat?s rejection of the offer, depending, in part, on the analysis of the Israeli radical left: ?The maps the Palestinians were urged to accept at Camp David were described by Gush Shalom, the Israeli peace movement, as ?humiliating.? Despite giving back 95 percent of the land, Jewish settlements remained, cutting up the nominally independent Palestinian entity into cantons and Bantustans. Israel, moreover, was to remain in control of the border with Jordan. The plan didn?t mention who would control the holy sites in Jerusalem. The timing for withdrawal would be left to Israel to decide.?
?It would be great,? Khashoggi wrote, ?to see Arafat confound our expectations by standing tall and renouncing Oslo and all it stands for, and leading a war of national liberation just like any oppressed people has done before. Either this, or else he should depart the scene and allow a new generation of Palestinian leaders to take over?.?
?Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon believes he has succeeded in fooling us all when he forced all the world?s leaders to question whether he was about to kill Palestinian President Yasser Arafat,? Khashoggi wrote, ?and what effects such an action would have on the situation in the Middle East? [His] warlike stance and the leaks about his intention to deport thousands of Palestinians?? is all a bargaining tactic. In fact, the Saudi article claimed, ?Sharon wants to negotiate according to the Oslo formula that gives priority to Israel?s security? But this time, negotiations will be conducted with a gravely wounded Palestinian side? Sharon is not only out for revenge even though he wouldn?t mind shedding some Palestinian blood?? In order to make sure that the Arabs ?feel forsaken by the whole world so that they will be ready to sign any scrap of paper laid out before them at the negotiating table,? the article asserted, Sharon had to ?humiliate the Palestinian people, break their spirit, and make them feel defeated, weak and hopeless? to destroy the Palestinians? self-confidence.? Oslo is the goal, Khashoggi asserted, yet later in the same article he made reference to ?Yitzhak Rabin, who espoused Oslo (in contrast to Sharon, who despises it)?? That explains why, according to Khashoggi, ?Arafat and his cronies, though humiliated in the opening stages of the Israeli operation, will be allowed to survive, because the Israelis and the Americans need them to sign up to the final settlement.?
Unwittingly playing their part in the trap, according to the article, are the Arab states. ?Arab leaders? are more worried about the effects of Arafat?s death on their own countries. They are more afraid of how their own peoples might react.? Arafat will then emerge ?impotent and more disappointed with the Arabs and the world than ever.? Once that is accomplished, predicted the author, then ?When the time comes, ?international pressure? will force Sharon to withdraw his troops from Palestinian towns. American troops will be deployed to keep the peace (Israel will strongly reject European participation because the Jews, who have never forgotten the Holocaust, don?t trust the Europeans). The PA will then be invited to the (American-sponsored) negotiating table, where former President Bill Clinton?s so-called generous offer will be revived.? At that point, ?US President George W. Bush will tell the weakened Palestinians that ?we couldn?t have gotten this generous offer had we not pressured Sharon. It is a great concession,? Bush will say, ?for which we are grateful. It is an expression of Sharon?s desire for peace.? ?Arab leaders will be subjected to enormous pressure to condemn Palestinian ?violence? and suicide attacks. They will also be made to pressure the Palestinians to accept the ?generosity? on offer. Scores of ?experts? will be produced to extol the virtues of the agreements, and to urge Arafat to sign.? However, the end result, predicted Khashoggi, will be that ?the Americans (who by this time would have forces on the ground) will insist that the PA implement security arrangements designed to safeguard Israel?s security to the letter. Israel, meanwhile, procrastinates, and the settlers will continue their provocations. Once the Palestinians respond to these provocations, the Americans will step in. Israel?s sensibilities will have to be respected ?because elections are due and it will be bad for the peace process to have a right-wing government in power.? As for tensions on the Palestinian side, well, the PA just has to deal with it by force.?
In describing the once and future US-sponsored offer, the Saudi newspaper stated, ?This offer (rejected by Arafat at Camp David and Taba) envisages giving the Palestinians control of 95 percent (some say up to 100 percent) of the West Bank and Gaza, together with part of East Jerusalem as a capital, the return of a limited number of refugees, and compensation of up to $30 billion all in exchange for signing an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict.? Yet, the article justified Arafat?s rejection of the offer, depending, in part, on the analysis of the Israeli radical left: ?The maps the Palestinians were urged to accept at Camp David were described by Gush Shalom, the Israeli peace movement, as ?humiliating.? Despite giving back 95 percent of the land, Jewish settlements remained, cutting up the nominally independent Palestinian entity into cantons and Bantustans. Israel, moreover, was to remain in control of the border with Jordan. The plan didn?t mention who would control the holy sites in Jerusalem. The timing for withdrawal would be left to Israel to decide.?
?It would be great,? Khashoggi wrote, ?to see Arafat confound our expectations by standing tall and renouncing Oslo and all it stands for, and leading a war of national liberation just like any oppressed people has done before. Either this, or else he should depart the scene and allow a new generation of Palestinian leaders to take over?.?