What actually drove Obama to make the JCPOA deal with Iran that was not worth the paper it was written on?
Strictly speaking, Obama politically came with very little experience in the Illinois Senate or in the US Senate. He had highly questionable friends who were ignored by the mainstream media who sold him as the anti-Bush. As such, he was purely a product of the media, hardly an elected group of people.
Obama's friend, Bill Ayers, probably the ghost writer of Obama’s “Dreams from My Father” and “Change We can Believe In”, was a professor at the University of Illinois in Chicago as well as during the 1970s, a former leader of the Weather Underground, a radical leftist organization. Ayers and his wife, Bernadine Dohrn, were the two top leaders of the organization. In early 1970, the group had begun a series of bombings, primarily of government buildings, that would continue through to 1975. They were both spared federal prosecution due to government misconduct during their investigation.
Of course, when running for president, Obama’s campaign dismissed any major relationship with Ayers, which was only to be expected. He also distanced himself from the highly controversial Rev. Wright, whose church he frequented for a number of years. In addition, the question of where Obama was born has been raised numerous times, and why he did not make his birth certificate immediately available. One thing that has never been made public were his university grades, which is a good question.
Obama’s early background is generally well known. In 1960, his Kenyan father, Barack Hussein Obama Senior, met and dated an American woman, Stanley Ann Dunham while studying at the University of Hawaii on a special government-sponsored program. She became pregnant and they were married on the Hawaiian island of Maui on 2 February 1961. Their son, future US president Barack Hussein Obama, was born in August 1961. In 1964 they separated and divorced. A year later, his mother then married Lolo Soetoro and they moved to Indonesia where Obama was schooled in an Islamic Madrassa until he was ten years old. Children's early formative experiences deeply affect their future physical, cognitive, emotional and social development. I have no doubt his early years being brought up as a Muslim influenced him deeply for the rest of his life. After age ten, he was sent to Hawaii where he went to school, while living with his grandparents.
Now to the issue at hand, that is Iran. Without doubt, Obama’s early Islamic upbringing has had enormous influence on his beliefs and shaped his future actions. He became president, declared that building bridges with the Islamic world would be a high priority of his administration. He then gave a dreadful speech in Cairo in which he apologized for the United States’ alleged misdeeds, bowed to the Saudi King whose government funded Islamic jihad worldwide, and praised the new Islamist government under Erdogan in Turkey after the Turkish-sponsored Mavi Marmara Gaza incident.
Ingratiating himself with Islam he essentially distanced himself from Israel as a way of currying favour with Muslim autocracies and dictatorships. He banned the US intelligence community from speaking truthfully about Islam, thus constraining them. Much of his actions were catastrophic and with Biden reappointing Obama’s apparatchiks, we will see a rehash of his policies.
On that first trip to the Middle East, Obama deliberately avoided visiting Israel, displaying a dislike of Israel and probably Jews as well, and thus setting the tone for his presidency.
Throughout his Presidency he was hamstrung by the US Congress, which was pro-Israel. His aversion for Israel was illustrated many times in his relationship with and treatment of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And even until his last days in office, he deliberately promoted and sponsored an anti-Israel resolution in the United Nations, which he then refused to veto.
Obama’s opinion of the Middle East, of which he has proven he knows very little, is evident in his latest book, “The Promised Land”, in which his “history” of Israel is without substance and totally inaccurate. I even suspect he had someone else pen it for him and included it without verifying any of it at all, or liked what he read and obviously agreed with it. If it was penned by him, it is a glaring example of his total lack of knowledge about Israel and its history or even his disdain. More likely, it shows his bias and bigotry.
Obama has displayed a great dislike for the United States and they voted him in twice. It really showed the power of a one-sided media.
What Obama realised in the Middle East was that all the Arab Sunni states, which, following numerous failed attempts, proved that none were equipped to take on Israel, showed that Israel had become the military powerhouse in the region. The only Islamic state with the aggression and militancy to possibly take on Israel was Iran. In addition, Iran was working on developing a nuclear weapon. I don’t have to describe the damage a nuclear bomb could do to tiny Israel with her major population centred along the Mediterranean coast.
One wonders if it had occurred to Obama that a nuclear bomb affixed to a ballistic missile could threaten America and all the USA’s allies in Europe as well. Maybe he didn’t care. Obama has displayed a great dislike for the United States and they voted him in twice. It really showed the power of a one-sided media.
One also wonders if the “genius”, Obama, was actually aware of Iran’s Shiite ambitions to spread its version of Islam across the entire world. Maybe he was and it appealed to him. In the 1,400 years of Islam, the Shiite version was always the lesser accepted form as the Sunnis dominated the religion, which propagated an internecine conflict of equal length since the passing of Mohammed.
From Obama’s perspective, Iran was the state with which to develop a relationship. The mullahs have the will, aggression and desire to destroy Israel, which they have expressed continuously. However, Iran’s nuclear ambitions posed a PR problem. Therefore, Obama relied on the belief that Iran could not be stopped, and as a result the US and some of its European partners negotiated a deal, which on the surface could be sold to a compliant and ever helpful main stream media, which in turn would sell it to the world’s public. Iran would agree not to develop a nuclear weapon for at least ten years, after which they would be free to do so. This could follow without any international interference. Obama, by then, would have “kicked the can down the road” for a future President to deal with along with the possible fate of Israel.
Whether Iran would comply didn’t really bother anyone, and clauses contained in the agreement limited inspections to civilian sites only whilst excluding military sites -- which is, of course, exactly where nuclear weapons would be developed. This was not only an awful and extremely bad agreement, which appeared to be Obama’s intention, but it has never been ratified by the US Congress. Part of the “deal” was that Obama would transfer huge amounts of cash to the Iranians in the amount of $150 to $170 billion. It remains questionable as to how much of it would find its way into Obama’s pocket. If this was so, a Democrat aligned media would be part of the conspiracy in covering it up.
During the signing and lead up to the JCPOA, I was always struck by the arrogance and cocksureness of Mohammad Javad Zarif so much on display I suspected and speculated that he possibly had Obama and Kerry in his pocket.
This whole scheme essentially threw the USA’s Sunni Arab allies “under the bus” abandoning them with Iran simultaneously threatening them. The great unintended irony, which had not been clearly thought through or even imagined, was that this would encourage the Sunni Arabs to make peace with Israel for their mutual defence as they no longer trusted America. As a result, these states were no longer bound by a ridiculous Palestinian-imposed veto. Their interests and defence obviously took precedence and under a Biden presidency, this situation would be even more relevant, with Obama very likely in the background pulling the Biden strings.
What appealed to Obama and his useless sidekick, John Kerry, was more the potential destruction of Israel, and perhaps to a lesser extent, limiting Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The JCPOA agreement said nothing about the development of missiles, which should have been a logical inclusion. Why something so fundamental was omitted remains a mystery. What should have occurred to them during negotiations was that a nuclear bomb has to be delivered. Iran has an antiquated air force which could not manage such a task. It could of course acquire aircraft from Russia or China. However, the obvious and only alternative was via a ballistic missile. This is precisely what Iran has been developing and testing for years.
Recently, on the Tucker Carlson Show on Fox News, there was an interview with a Chinese professor with political connections in China at the highest level, who claimed that China "has infiltrated people within America's inner circle of power and influence." While the main stream media ignored the “laptop from hell” that revealed all the Biden family’s corrupt dealings with China, Russia and Ukraine, the following video-link arrived and is damning evidence. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xy16UbTYcNU
The American 2020 election is still fraught with allegations of fraud which seem more than plausible. If Trump had remained president and had a second term, then the issues with Iran would remain as they are with stringent sanctions together with the US military presence around Iran with attack aircraft already in the region. With Biden declared president, we are in for a torrid time. Israel will not allow Iran to develop the bomb, and has in the past set precedents both in Iraq and Syria, which would lead to the total destruction of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
In response, Iran could let loose its surrogates in the form of terrorist organisations Hezbollah and Hamas. This would initiate a war on two fronts domestically for Israel, both in Gaza and on the Lebanese border, possibly Syria and a third with Iran. Hezbollah is known to have more than 150,000 missiles stored in Lebanon, and Hamas has many smuggled Iranian missiles as well as home-made Qassams. A huge missile barrage might overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome and other missile defences. However, Iran is similarly vulnerable, especially her single port for oil exports apart from its nuclear sites.
Should such an event occur with Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran would very likely become involved as it has been setting up bases in Syria which Israel continuously attacks. The Sunni states -- which include Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt and Turkey -- are unlikely to join in on the side of Iran and would in all likelihood assist Israel even if it only meant offering their air space, providing forward bases and use of their airports.
Iran has a substantial navy with submarines, and is a serious threat to Israel. If Trump had retained the presidency, assistance for Israel was assured. However, with Biden as President, America’s intervention on behalf of Israel is uncertain. Iran’s terrain is mountainous, but a fair amount of her nuclear facilities are not concealed. The following Wikipedia link lists Iran’s nuclear facilities, and without doubt their exact GPS positions have already been programmed into Israel’s missile systems. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_facilities_in_Iran.
The JCPOA agreement said nothing about the development of missiles, which should have been a logical inclusion.
Underground facilities within mountains obviously provide for greater secrecy and security, but they have to have entrances and exits, which. I am sure are known to Israel and the USA.
In this scenario, one also has to factor in Turkey. Erdogan has ambitions to become a Sultan and Caliph of the Sunni world. Essentially he is in competition with Iran as they both have ambitions of resuscitating former empires. It might suit Erdogan to align himself with Iran and thereby eliminate Saudi Arabia as the current Sunni leadership country. A pact between Turkey and Iran would be akin to the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact which was a non-aggression pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union that enabled those two powers to partition Poland between them. As became evident, it didn’t last, as Germany eventually attacked Russia. Similarly, Turkey’s and Iran’s ambitions clash both in empire ambitions and religious affiliations. Erdogan has troops in Qatar, Sudan and Somalia, thus encompassing Saudi Arabia within a triangle.
Azerbaijan, currently an ally of both Israel and Turkey, is situated in the north of Iran on the Caspian Sea and may allow Israel’s aircraft to use their facilities. Whilst Iran will probably have Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, Israel may have the answer to that as is illustrated in its response to the S-300s in Syria.
In conclusion, I believe Obama had, and continues to have, an anti-Israel agenda and Iran, in his mind, is the only viable antagonist that could possibly achieve the destruction of, or cause major damage to Israel. Israel hardly wants a war or conflict with Iran, which would be no easy push-over.
As of June 2019, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Air Force possesses 350 fighters, making it the ninth largest air force in the world, as per Global Firepower. However, its air force is antiquated with much older generation planes, such as McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom II, F-14 Tomcats, Northrop F-5 Tiger II, their own light fighter, the HESA Saeqeh, and from China, the Chengdu J-7, a Chinese version of a MIG-21, as well as a number of other aircraft. I don’t think these are able to match F35s and F16s, and perhaps in the future, F22s. Iran has announced it will be acquiring more modern aircraft from China or possibly Russia.
One will have to see how the result of the American election challenges pans out for, in my opinion, the Biden-Obama combo would be a disaster for the world, Israel and the US. Trump would have definitely held the line and, if push came to shove would end Iran’s nuclear ambitions permanently as well as the threat to Israel.
David Hersch is Chairman of SAIPAC, the South African Israel Public Affairs Committee. Former chairman of the South African Zionist Federation (Cape Council) as well as a former national vice-chairman of the South African Zionist Federation (SAZF). He is also former member of the South Jewish Board of Deputies (Cape Council). Retired businessman and broadcaster.