Binyamin Netanyahu
Binyamin Netanyahu Yonatan Sindel/Flash90

The Likud is projected to win 30 seats in the upcoming Knesset election, according to a new poll published Tuesday, with Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party coming in a distant second with 17 seats.

According to the poll, which was published Tuesday morning by Radio 103FM and conducted by Panels Politics with 509 respondents from the Panel4All internet survey service, if new elections were held today, the right-wing – religious bloc would win 59 seats, compared to 37 for the left-wing – Arab bloc and 24 for Yisrael Beytenu and New Hope combined.

The parties which have declared that they will not sit with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu under any circumstances would win a combined 61 seats, with those parties committed to a Likud-led government numbering just 48. Yamina has refused to commit to either side.

Yesh Atid is poised to become the third largest party with 14 seats, following by the rightist Yamina, which continues to fall, sinking to 11 seats – its lowest level in the polls since June.

The Joint Arab List also fell in Tuesday’s poll, declining from 11 to 10 seats.

Among the haredi factions, Shas holds steady at eight seats, while United Torah Judaism fell from eight to six seats since the previous Panels Politics poll, published on January 14th.

Yisrael Beytenu held steady at seven seats, while Blue and White fell to four seats.

The far-left Meretz party declined from six seats in last week’s poll to five, while HaYisraelim [The Israelis] party of Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai narrowly crossed the 3.25% electoral threshold with four seats.

Bezalel Smotrich’s National Union, recently rebranded as the Religious Zionist Party, narrowly crossed the threshold with four seats.

Otzma Yehudit, the Jewish Home, Telem, Labor, HaTnufa, the New Economic Party, and Gesher all failed to cross the threshold.