Joe Biden appeared to take a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in Florida in the final days of the 2020 US election campaign, with the two candidates locked in a dead heat in North Carolina and Arizona, according to Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls released on Monday, one day before Americans go to the polls.
A week earlier, Reuters/Ipsos polls showed Trump and Biden in a statistical tie across the three states.
The final Reuters/Ipsos national poll showed Biden with an outright majority among all likely voters: 52% said they were backing the Democratic nominee while 44% said they were voting for the Republican Trump.
The national poll, conducted from October 29 to November 2, gathered responses from 1,333 adults, including 914 likely voters. The national poll has a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
Reuters/Ipsos also polled likely voters in six states - Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - that will play critical roles in deciding whether Trump wins a second term in office or if Biden wins.
In Florida, between October 27 and November 1, voting for Biden stood at 50% and voting for Trump was at 46%. A prior poll showed Biden leading Trump 49%-47%, effectively a tie because the margin was within the poll’s credibility interval.
41% said they already had voted.
In Arizona, between October 27 and November 1, voting for Biden was 49% and voting for Trump was at 47%.
The two are statistically tied as the margin is within the survey’s credibility interval. A prior poll also showed a statistically even race, with 48% for Biden and 46% for Trump. 49% said they already had voted.
In North Carolina (Oct. 27 - Nov. 1), voting for Biden - 49% and voting for Trump - 48%. Since the margin is within the poll’s credibility interval, the race is statistically tied, as it was in the prior poll when Biden had 49% to Trump’s 48%.
43% said they already had voted.
In Michigan, between October 27 and November 1, voting for Biden was at 52% and voting for Trump was 42%.
Biden was up 52%-43% the prior week. 37% of adults said they already had voted.
In Wisconsin (Oct. 27 - Nov. 1), voting for Biden: 53%, voting for Trump: 43%. Biden was up 53%-44% the prior week and 41% of adults said they already had voted.
In Pennsylvania, from October 27 to November 1, voting for Biden was 51% and voting for Trump was at 44%. Biden was up 50%-45% the prior week. 25% of adults said they already had voted.