It seems to have been around for an age now, but the coronavirus pandemic is still causing plenty of issues around the globe. Economies are still crippled, social lives are being re-pieced, more people are unemployed, and businesses have closed down. The world is slowly recovering from the shock impact but with reports of a second wave already developing in some countries, where do we go now?
Iran is one of those countries that is starting to see signs of a second wave. Currently, there have been over 13,000 deaths with over 250,000 cases reported and many more are expected over the next few weeks and months. This is due to restrictions being lifted in Iran, allowing people to move around freely again resulting in another spread of the virus. Relaxing restrictions is of course not uncommon to do and deemed necessary after such a long period of lockdown in most countries but there is an element of trust that comes with it. Reports are showing that the use of masks in public areas is declining sharply and that social distancing isn’t being adhered to. Failure to obey these simple guidelines will always complicate matters further. Complacent? Ignorant? Or born out of necessity? There are arguments to back up the early opening of shops, restaurants, mosques, and public transport. Economically, Iran has suffered terribly from the effects of the virus. The Rial has lost value against many currencies worldwide, including 14% against the US Dollar at one stage. Therein lies the problem and the reason why the Iranian government decided to allow people back to work at such an early stage. Even by mid-April, public amenities were already re-opening. The effects of these actions will be there to see over time, but one thing is for certain, the pandemic cannot be underestimated.
Right now, normality is still a question mark. Habits, daily life, interaction will change forever due to the nature of the virus. Previously limited activities are surfacing such as online casino play and increased television streaming. People have resorted to home-based activities to pass the pandemic lockdown monotony and players and viewers are slowly finding their way to previously unthought of alternatives. But this is all considered a stop gap of course. One of the only silver linings of a potential second wave is that governments and authorities can make improvements on how they reacted to the initial outbreak. The criticism lobbied at Iranian decision-makers, and this is by no means just them that are guilty of this, is that the reaction time was too slow at the beginning, and the easing of restrictions came too soon. The virus was a relatively unknown factor, correct, but Iran was one of the countries that boasted the most cases outside of China, where the virus originated. Not only within Iran, but outside the borders, as many as 16 countries have claimed that cases within their boundaries came from Iran. But with a second wave comes a second chance to right the wrongs from a few months previous. Of course, there is only so much a government can do. They rely on the people to carry out their instructions and policing this in public is largely out of the question, especially in a city like Tehran for example, with over 8 million people. What the government can control however, is the testing rate and one silver lining is that more and more people are getting tested in Iran. Testing results followed by quarantine/isolation if tested positive has proven an effective way to contain the spread of the virus. But again, there is an element of trust instilled in the public to adhere to these guidelines.
It remains to be seen whether the Iranian government change their approach to battling the virus, if an official second wave is announced. There are also many heavily publicized issues to deal with on the political front, with the ongoing conflict with Israel on a constant brink of serious escalation. One thing that can be affected though, are the actions within Iran, and it will be interesting to see how the next chapter of 2020 plays out.