The five small right-wing factions mulling an alliance ahead of the September 17th elections would win a total of 16 seats if they ran together under the leadership of former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, a new poll shows.
According to a Maagar Mohot poll published by Israel Hayom and i24News, if new elections were held today, an alliance of the United Right’s constituent parties – Jewish Home and National Union – with the New Right, Otzma Yehudit, and Zehut parties could win a whopping 16 seats, making it the third largest party in the Knesset – but only if led by Shaked.
The poll, which was conducted before the unification Thursday of the Meretz and Israel Democratic Party, found that if the right-wing bloc unites under Shaked, the Likud would win just 25 seats, compared to its present 35, while the center-left Blue and White would become the largest party with 31.
The haredi parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, would win seven seats each, a loss of one seat compared to their present eight each.
The Yisrael Beytenu party would rise from five seats to eight, while Labor would fall from six to five.
Meretz, would win four seats, as would the new Israel Democratic Party. Since the poll was conducted, however, the two factions have announced plans to run on a joint list.
The predominantly Arab Joint List would win 13 seats if its four member factions reunite.
In this scenario, the right-wing bloc – including Yisrael Beytenu – would win 63 seats, but would be unable to form a narrow-right wing government, with just 55 seats sans Yisrael Beytenu. Yisrael Beytenu has refused to form a narrow government, calling instead for the formation of a unity Likud-Blue and White government without the haredi parties or the United Right.
The left-wing – Arab bloc would win 57 seats in this scenario.
If, however, Shaked did not lead the right-wing alliance, which would instead be run by United Right chief Rafi Peretz, the rightist union would win just 9 seats, in place of 16.
In this case, the Likud would remain the largest party, with 32 seats, compared to 30 for the Blue and White party, 13 for the Joint List, seven each for Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Yisrael Beytenu, six for Labor, and five each for Meretz and the Israel Democratic Party.