“The Palestinian police will possess…up to 45 wheeled armored vehicles of a type to be agreed between the two sides (Israel and PA)...The use of wheeled armored vehicles…in the vicinity of the Settlements shall be approved through the relevant DCO.”
-Oslo Accords, Annex I, Article III, para. 5a3
The Palestinian first strike capability is a strategy developed in the early stages of the Middle East peace process. It is preceded by a long period of demonization, misery, and random murder, intended to wear down our will to continue living in and defending Yesha.
The strategy assumes that mere terrorism is insufficient because there are about 30 or 40 yishuvim that are likely to be recalcitrant and hold on, despite the various forms of harassment that terrorism involves.
For Palestinian statehood to be a fait accompli will require the sudden collapse of a select number of vital yishuvim. This can only be achieved in a coordinated overnight first strike involving both advancing PA and retreating IDF units.
Therefore, Yeshan security has been specifically designed in a way that will be vulnerable to a certain type of key that is not immediately perceptible to Yeshans encountering them. Thus, the gates and armaments of Yesha (and in general the entire security apparatus) have been designed, selected, and controlled universally to be uniquely vulnerable to a specific tool that has been then semi-secretly given to the PA – armored vehicles.
Armored vehicles are a particular threat to the yishuvim because they can easily smash their way through yishuv gates. The armored vehicles could roam within the yishuvim because the IDF has withheld anti-armor weapons from yishuv stockpiles. The IDF also appears to be withholding information about Arab armored vehicles in Yesha.
The PA did not secretly conspire to come up with a force of armored vehicles. It was given to them at Oslo. The yishuv gates were built a certain way and certain weapons are denied to the yishuvim. For example, there exist 7.62mm armor-piercing rounds that could penetrate through PA armored vehicles, but there is no such armor-piercing ammunition in the yishuvim, and even the 7.62 weapons that have been selected for the yishuvim jam up almost universally. So in every stage Yesha’s defenses have been picked to set up a back-door option for their easy removal.
The eviction and attack plans on yishuvim have one key vulnerability, however: the complex plans to abandon/evict Yesha’s Jews depend on secrecy to succeed.
If the yishuvim prepare to conduct an effective self-defense and stay alert for a sudden Israeli abandonment, such a collapse can be prevented. The PA would then be forced to mount a sustained attack against a determined defense.