A new poll shows the right-wing, religious bloc losing its majority in the Knesset, even as the Israel Resilience party shows signs of decline.
According to the poll, conducted by Panels Politics and published by Walla! on Wednesday, the parties which made up Binyamin Netanyahu’s coalition during most of the 34th government would win just 59 seats if new elections were held today, compared to 67 seats in 2015.
That eight-seat decline would deprive the right-wing, religious bloc of the majority needed to guarantee Netanyahu’s reelection as Prime Minister, enabling him to block the formation of an alternative government.
The poll still shows Netanyahu’s Likud the clear favorite to win the election, with 31 seats to 19 for former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz’s Israel Resilience party. That’s down from 22 seats Gantz’s party was projected to win by another Panels Politics poll earlier this month.
Yesh Atid would gain two mandates if new elections were held today, the poll finds, rising from 11 to 13 mandates.
Orly Levy’s Gesher faction would win four seats, the same number as the Kulanu party and the haredi Shas faction.
Labor would plummet to just nine seats, down from the 24 it won in a joint list with Hatnuah in 2015. Hatnuah will not be running in the election.
The far-left Meretz faction would win five seats, the same number it currently has, while the two Arab factions, Ta’al and the Joint List, would fall from a combined 13 seats to 11.
The United Torah Judaism faction, which won six seats in 2015, would rise to seven seats, while Yisrael Beytenu would fail to clear the threshold.
Naftali Bennett’s New Right would win eight seats, while the Jewish Home-National Union ticket would win eight seats.
The poll was conducted prior to today’s announcement that Otzma Yehudit has accepted the Jewish Home’s offer for a joint ticket.
According to the poll, Otzma would receive 2.8% of the vote, but fail to cross the threshold on its own.