Yochanan Visser is an independent journalist/analyst who worked for many years as Middle East correspondent for Western Journalism.com in Arizona and was a frequent publicist for the main Dutch paper De Volkskrant. He authoreda book in the Dutch language about the cognitive war against Israel and now lives in Gush Etzion. He writes a twice weekly analysis of current issues for Arutz Sheva.
On Tuesday, Russia instigated a diplomatic crisis with Israel over an incident involving four IAF F16I warplanes which were attacking Syrian or Iranian targets near Latakia in northwest Syria.
To avoid being hit by Syrian S-200 surface to air missiles the Israeli jets took cover behind a Russian Ilyushin IL-20 aircraft which was preparing to land on the Russian operated Hmeimim airbase in Syria, claimed the Defense Ministry in Russia.
The IL-20 reconnaissance plane was subsequently downed by one of the Syrian S-200 missiles, killing all fifteen crew members, while the IAF jets injured ten people in three strikes against military facilities in the Latakia Province. This is where Iranian equipment for the manufacturing of missiles is stored and where advanced weapons bound for Hezbollah are prepared for delivery.
"Israeli aircraft deliberately created a dangerous situation for surface ships and aircraft in the area," the Russian Ministry of Defense later said in a statement.
“As a result, the IL-20, whose effective reflective surface is an order of magnitude larger than that of the F-16, was shot down by a C-200 missile," the statement furthermore said, indicating that the IAF planes had used the much larger Russian plane as a shield against incoming Syrian anti-aircraft missiles.
The Russians also complained about an Israeli advance warning which was given only one minute before the airstrike on the Syrian or Iranian military facility began and claimed that the Israelis “deliberately” continued their “provocation.”
“This is absolutely not in keeping with the spirit of the Russian-Israeli partnership. We reserve the right to adequate response," the Russians warned before reports came in about an erupting political crisis between the two countries.
An angry Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Defense Minister, called his Israeli counterpart Avigdor Liberman and told him that Russia held Israel “wholly responsible” for the downing of the IL-20 and for the death of 15 Russian servicemen.
Shoigu’s call was later followed by the summoning of Gary Koren, Israel’s ambassador to Russia, who was invited for “a talk” at the Foreign Ministry in Moscow.
On Monday night, however, Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to indulge in crisis management when he said on Tuesday that Israel does not bear responsibility for the downing of the Russian plane.
"It looks like a chain of tragic circumstances, because the Israeli plane didn't shoot down our jet," The Russian leader said before talking with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on the phone.
Putin also addressed the initial threat to Israel concerning the “adequate response” and said the language of the statement by his Defense Ministry was fully coordinated with him.
He then said “the retaliatory measures will be directed above all to boosting the security of military men and installations in Syria.”
During his telephone conversation with Netanyahu, Putin warned the Israeli PM “not to allow such situations in the future,” while Netanyahu repeated his vow that Israel would continue to prevent the Iranian entrenchment in Syria.
On Thursday, news broke that Russia had begun to close airspace and international waters off the coast of Syria all the way up to Cyprus, officially in order to conduct military drills.
This was later followed by a report that the Russian embassy in Israel had doubled down on the Israeli air force and in a scathing statement accused Israel of “irresponsible and unfriendly actions” which led to the death of 15 servicemen.
The Israeli military, however, rejected the Russian accusations and said that by the time the Syrians downed the Russian plane, all Israeli F-16’s were back in Israel’s airspace.
This all begs the question of who is telling the truth here.
First of all, you can’t hide behind a plane as the Russians and Syrians have claimed.
Former Military Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin, a retired IAF pilot, said the Russian claims and accusations were “unprofessional”.
“You can’t ‘hide behind a plane’ - the Russian claim is unprofessional and attempts to clear the Syrians of guilt,” Yadlin told the media.
Secondly, videos of the Israeli strikes which were posted on social media by Syrian civilians in Latakia showed that the IAF warplanes were flying at a very low altitude during the strikes in Latakia.
This is done to avoid being hit by Syrian air defenses which often uses the Russian-made S-200 surface to air missile.
The same tactic was used by the IAF during ‘Operation Chess,’ the massive Israeli operation against Iranian military facilities and bases in Syria which destroyed roughly 50 Iranian targets in the country on May 10, 2018.
The 15 Israeli F-15 jets returned to their bases without being hit by Syrian air defenses.
Syrian S-200 missiles have, furthermore, in 99.5 percent of all cases, failed to down Israeli warplanes during the more than 200 airstrikes which the IAF has carried out against Iranian targets in Syria over the past few years.
As the Russians themselves pointed out “the IL-20, whose effective reflective surface is an order of magnitude larger than that of the F-16, was shot down by a (Syrian) S-200 missile.”
The Russian plane was flying at a much higher altitude than the Israeli F-16’s and was flying over the Mediterranean Sea 35 kilometers from the Syrian coast when it prepared for landing on the Hmeimim airbase, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.
It is therefore fair to assume that the IDF was speaking the truth when it issued the following statement:
“The Syrian anti-air batteries fired indiscriminately and, from what we understand, did not bother to ensure that no Russian planes were in the air,” the Israeli army said in a statement.