Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, it would seem, is leading the State of Israel with confidence and daring to the most resounding political failure of the past half century.
If Mahmoud Abbas' visit to the White House of Donald Trump ends with a joint declaration on two countries at the '67 borders and a freeze on settlements as a condition for negotiations - it will be the Palestinian 'Balfour Declaration', one hundred years after the original Balfour Declaration. And this political failure will be chalked up to Netanyahu, and Netanyahu alone.
It will no longer be possible to blame this failure on musty arguments like "the greatest danger is Iran" - even if in Syrian territory opposite the Golan Heights steps that bode problems for Israel are indeed being made insofar as an Iranian-Hezbollah takeover - or on fears of US government vindictiveness. This failure is "Made in Israel - blue and white", or more precisely: the Prime Minister's failure. Since being elected president in November of last year, Trump has not heard the most important sentence from Netanyahu: "The two-state solution has been shelved", or at least frozen. He also has not heard about readiness to annex territory that is not subject to an internal debate in Israel.
Immediately after Trump was elected, even before he was sworn in, diplomatic sources warned Netanyahu that precisely because Trump lacks understanding or preconceived views on political issues, it is important to rush and start a political dialogue, before anyone else convinces him of positions that are uncomfortable for Israel.
Netanyahu delayed, "schlepped along," and didn't rush to present a clear and coherent Israeli policy that would remove the idea of two states from the agenda. In this way he ceded to Arab parties, such as the King of Jordan, the first meeting with Trump, to convince him of the "fabulous two-state vision." Netanyahu mumbled something about coordination, Liberman spoke of an "explosion." and the Administration realized that Israel has a Prime Minister and a Defense Minister who are confused and tremble in fear of the possibility of Israeli control in Judea and Samaria.
In the style of the classic Rudyard Kipling poem If - if the Trump Administration actually revives the two-state idea as the basis for any policy discussion, and if the construction freeze in Judea, Samaria, and Jerusalem is to continue, or even if execution of the agreement signed by the Prime Minister to establish an alternative settlement for the displaced residents of Amona depends on the consent of the White House - it will turn out to be the biggest diplomatic failure since the Six-Day War. And this failure will be associated with one single name: Netanyahu.
If there is a position to be filled on the security-political cabinet - they already admitted two weeks ago that the cabinet is also political, not just about security -then it's exactly the position that the Jewish Home ministers must demand so as not to allow the Prime Minister to evade serious discussion about expected political processes involving the Trump administration and the Palestinians. If there is one unacceptable sentence, it is what Netanyahu said at a Cabinet meeting last month, on the eve of his first meeting with President Trump: "I steered the relationship between Israel and the United States wisely, and will continue to do so now as well." Netanyahu's navigation is the last thing that you can count on. Netanyahu navigates directly into the mud.
What I'm missing in Netanyahu's conduct is primarily political sophistication, the kind that actually exists among the Palestinians. With it they succeed again and again to convince the whole world that the settlements are the main obstacle to an agreement. Netanyahu's only condition - that the Palestinians recognize Israel as a Jewish state - is quite easy not to connect to, especially with Bibi so unconvincing, the practical implications of this condition being elimination of the Arab demand for the 'right of return.'
Precisely because Trump is a businessman, you can talk to him in a way he understands: You're offering me a deal; I want to know what's in it for me?
If Netanyahu is so afraid to shelve the idea of "two states," he can at least announce an unequivocal demand: The idea of two states is frozen until you hear from the Palestinians what concessions they are willing to make for the arrangement. It is a condition that someone who is a businessman to the core, like Donald Trump, can connect to. The move will push Abbas into a corner, return the ball to the Palestinian court. The demand must have a deadline: We are not going to wait for you until the Messiah comes. If within six months, for example, the Palestinians do not announce what concessions they are willing to make, we will unilaterally annex the territories over which there is no debate in Israel, such as Gush Etzion, Ma'aleh Adumim, and the Jordan Valley.
Thereafter the ball will be in the Palestinian court, which has not happened for many years, since Abbas didn't phone back - until today actually - with an answer to Ehud Olmert's generous offer.
It's all in Netanyahu's hands. Will he stand the test?
Haggai Huberman is a reporter and military analyst, a veteran reporter of Arutz Sheva and Basheva. Won the Aminoach prize for documenting the History of Religious Zionist settlement, for his books Roots in the sand and Against All Odds.