Italy Flash 90

A large majority of German economists opposes Italy exiting the Eurozone: 61 percent are against an exit, versus 29 percent in favor. These are the latest results of the Economists Panel jointly conducted by the Ifo Institute and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Around 52 percent of the economists surveyed fear that an exit by Italy could negatively impact the Eurozone’s stability, while around 23 percent believe its impact could even be “"very negative."

"Italy’s exit would be the beginning of the end of the Eurozone," warned Niklas Potrafke, Director of the Ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy. "The key question is: what would be the implications for the EU’s stability if Italy were to leave the euro."

However, 57 percent of German economics professors believe that Italy is unlikely to exit, while 14 percent think that it is "very unlikely" to do so. Only 20 percent of the economists surveyed believe that Italy is "likely" to leave the Eurozone, while 6 percent assessed this outcome as "very likely."

At the same time, 48 percent of panel participants are convinced that exiting the Eurozone would positively impact Italy’s competitiveness, while 14 percent believe that it would even have a "very positive" effect. These results are based on speculation over the potential depreciation of a new Lira. The constitutional reforms recently rejected by Italians would have been a sensible step, according to 52 percent of German economists.

Around 100 German economics professors participated in the panel.