While the full dimensions of President-Elect Donald Trump’s surprise victory on Tuesday are not yet clear, with Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire still in play at the time of this writing, exit polling data gives a glimpse of the coalition of voters that catapulted a businessman and political neophyte past a former First Lady and Secretary of State – and into the White House.
According to the exit polls, Trump was propelled in part by unprecedented turnout among white Evangelical voters and blue collar whites.
Evangelicals, who comprised 26% of the electorate on Tuesday, voted 81% to 16% in favor of Trump. That margin pushed Trump’s overall performance with Protestants to 58%, compared to just 39% for Clinton.
Among Catholics, a traditionally Democratic-leaning demographic, Trump also won, beating Clinton 52-45.
With Jewish voters, Trump’s performance was roughly in line with past Republican nominees.
Trump won 24% of Jewish American voters, compared to 71% who voted for Clinton, only slightly more than the 69% who voted for Obama in 2012, and less than the 78% who voted for him in 2008. There is a sharp divide between Orthodox Jewish voting patterns and those of Reform, Conservative and unaffilliated Jews, some of whom would not be considered halakhically Jewish. That differentiation is not yet in.
Mitt Romney captured 30% of the Jewish vote in 2012, while McCain fell short of Trump’s margin in 2008, winning just 22%. Trump tied George W. Bush’s performance in 2004, and surpassed his 2000 margin of 19-79.
American military veterans also backed Trump strongly, 61% to 34%.
Not surprisingly, Trump carried non-college educated whites by a wide margin, 67% to 28%. But it was college educated whites, a group pre-election polls showed favoring Clinton, that put Trump over the top.
A traditionally Republican demographic, college educated whites backed Trump 49-45, far short of Romney’s margin but enough to secure him victories in key battleground states like Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
A prominent gender gap appeared in Tuesday’s vote, with 54% of female voters backing Clinton, compared to just 41% who voted for Trump, although a larger gap was expected. Men, on the other hand, backed Trump 53-42.
Despite predictions of a wipe-out among racial minorities, Trump generally made marginal improvements upon Mitt Romney’s performance with non-whites.
Trump won virtually an identical proportion of whites as Romney, beating Clinton 58-37, compared to Romney’s margin of 59-39 in 2012.
Among blacks, Trump won 8% of the vote to Clinton’s 88% - two points better than the 6-93 margin for Romney.
Hispanics also moved slightly towards the GOP, giving Trump a 29-65 margin, compared to Romney’s 26-73, despite his promise to close the borders. Asian Americans showed an identical margin in 2016, more Republican than the 26-73 margin in 2012.