With just hours to go until Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton face off at Hofstra University in New York for the first of three presidential debates, the Republican nominee continues to climb in state polling, gaining ground in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Colorado, Maine, Missouri, and retaining his lead in Ohio.
In national polling, Clinton leads on average by roughly 2 points – 1.9% according to FiveThirtyEight, and 2.4% according to the RealClearPolitics average. In both cases, her lead is within the margin of error.
Battleground states drifting towards Trump
On the state-level, however, polling shows a slow but steady slide towards Trump.
Trump now leads in states worth 266 electoral votes, compared to 272 that lean towards Hillary, just two more than she needs to win the White House. But gains in battleground states suggest the trajectory is towards Trump and away from Hillary – albeit at a modest pace.
In Ohio, the latest Gravis poll shows Trump up by 1 point, though the RCP average shows him with a 1.8% lead in the must-win Buckeye state.
More significantly, the latest polls in Colorado show Trump finally gaining traction in a state with a large proportion of both college-educated whites and Hispanics – two demographics that hitherto have favored Clinton.
A new Gravis poll shows Trump up by four points in Colorado. A Quinnipiac poll gives Clinton a two-point lead – down from eight points in mid-August, representing a six-point swing towards Trump. A YouGov poll also shows a virtual tie, with Clinton leading by just one point – 40% to 39%. The RCP average now puts Colorado as a virtual tie, with Clinton holding on to the narrowest of leads: just 0.4%.
In Missouri, which once appeared vulnerable earlier in the cycle, Trump has opened up a significant lead, with the latest YouGov poll giving him a nine-point lead there.
Even in Maine, a state which has voted Democrat in every election since 1992, Trump has narrowed Clinton’s lead to just four-points – 36% to Clinton’s 40%. With so many undecided voters, that could potentially put the state in play. Trump leads in the state’s 2nd Congressional District, which awards its electoral vote separately from the state, by a whopping 14 points, 48% to 34%.
Also encouraging for Trump is the six-point swing in Pennsylvania. With 20 electoral votes, Pennsylvania has voted consistently Democrat since 1992 and is a must-win state for Clinton. The latest Morning Call survey, however, shows Trump gaining six points on Clinton in just the last week, rising from 32% to 38%, as Clinton remains steady at 40%.
Debate opportunities for Trump – and Clinton
With the election essentially tied – or with a razor-thin Clinton lead – Monday night’s debate offers Trump the opportunity to gain momentum to propel him past the former Secretary of State and gain a decisive lead.
Much like Ronald Reagan in the 1980 presidential election’s single debate, the GOP nominee’s primary goal is to diffuse questions regarding his disposition, and reassure college-educated white voters – particularly college-educated suburban white women – who typically lean Republican that he is temperamentally fit to serve.
Ironically, Clinton’s efforts for months to paint her opponent as unstable has in some ways aided him, lowering the bar significantly and providing him the opportunity to win over moderates with a steady debate performance.
On the other hand, the debate could also prove decisive for Mrs. Clinton in regaining a commanding lead in the election.
If Clinton manages to provoke Trump into making the kind of personal attacks that characterized many of the Republican debates in 2015 and early 2016, marginally Republican voters could again abandon Trump and give Clinton an edge.