Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu might be fighting for his political life, as the Likud campaign ramps up late in the game to fight off the Zionist Camp's polls advantage. If Likud does not lead the next coalition, or at the very least make it into a national unity government, questions will center around the viability of Netanyahu as the party's leader in an era in which personalities dominate election campaigns.
Professor Shmuel Sandler of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies tells Arutz Sheva he is not convinced that Likud is facing the end of its run, but agrees that Netanyahu has faced an enormous ad-hominem campaign.
"The campaign against him is a very personal one. I would guess that is what Herzog's advisers went for. There are a lot of unprecedented, external resources being pitted against him."
This goes along with Netanyahu's own argument throughout his campaign that he is the target of a major Israeli media campaign, as well as the target of NGOs who are receiving funds from abroad like V15. His personality, or specifically his likeability, might be vulnerable in the eyes of the Zionist Camp's campaign managers.
There is evidence of this also in the controversial figure he has cut among right-wing voters who accuse him of being deliberately ambiguous about whether or not he supports a two-state solution, a position for which he voiced support in his 2009 Bar Ilan speech.
Netanyahu himself said Sunday night in an interview with Arutz Sheva: "I think that was said at a time when the Middle East was in a different place...but right now the Middle East has changed with an Islamist Winter that is sweeping the entire area."
The two-state solution might also be the major reason the Likud avoided putting out a full platform this year, in order to maintain ambiguity ahead of building a coalition.
According to Sandler, "the lack of platform didn't help him. He didn't want the two-state issue to come up. In his party, it is problematic. He would have to put it one way or the other, and while he has committed himself to two states, his party has not."
Sandler does give Netanyahu the benefit of the doubt to some degree, mainly because it was American pressure that finally produced the Bar Ilan Speech when he famously (or infamously) declared his support for a Palestinian state.
On the question of whether or not Netanyahu will be able to survive a leadership challenge, should Likud not lead the next government, or at least reach a national unity deal with the Zionist Camp, Professor Sandler thought it was far too early to tell what would happen.
Despite the beginnings of speculation on who is preparing to make a putsch for the party leadership if Netanyahu starts the next Knesset off as the leader of the opposition, Professor Sandler is not convinced that Netanyahu has lost the election just yet.
"The Left will still have a very hard time achieving a coalition," he notes. "There are too many variables between Yesh Atid and the haredi parties; between Meretz and (Yisrael) Beytenu. The right still has the advantage in pulling together a coalition."
In the end, Professor Sandler feels that despite the domestic focus of the campaign, Netanyahu is going to have to enter into a national unity government at this point - even though Netanyahu has directly rejected that possibility.
“I think he will go for a national unity government – that’s how I see it. If he has Buji (Labor head Yitzhak Herzog) on his side it will be easier to face the pressures that are going to come our way.”
What he envisions might resemble the standard politics of the past, where Shas and United Torah Judaism are not “betrayed” by Netanyahu and some of the reforms pushed through in the previous government will have to be rolled back, even if that just means some semantic changes to the laws.
Much still remains to be seen, but Likud will face tough decisions in the near future on how to present itself, as a party or with its leader. Likud might still have to moderate its image in the future if the Prime Minister is dethroned on Tuesday.
Gideon Sa'ar has made some appearances to push the Likud campaign, fueling the idea he might be preparing to contest Netanyahu’s chair.
But if there is a national unity administration, Sandler feels that will be enough to shield Netanyahu from an internal Likud onslaught.
“If he can’t form any government without going for a national unity government, then he is going to offer Buji to join the new cabinet on his terms," said Netanyahu. “He will be protected from a leadership challenge.”