Two theories surrounding the terrorist attack in Bulgaria view Hizbullah acting as a contractor for Iran or alternatively avenging the death of key operative Imad Mughniye.
Perhaps a third hypothesis should be added to the mix: The deterioration of Bashar Assad's position in Syria has Hizbullah very edgy because of the repercussions for Lebanon.
The international media has already focused on the emergence of Sheik Ahmad Assir, a Sunni cleric from Sidon, who promises not to let Hassan Nasrallah sleep at night. He has become a focal point of Sunni resentment against Hizbullah dominance in Lebanon.
The Christian community is also growing restive. Samir Geagea exulted: “The demise of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Damascus is a matter of time and the Christians have crossed 40 of the most difficult years in their history.”
Nasrallah himself showed the pressure of the Syrian situation in an address on Wednesday, when he defended Syria and claimed “The most important rockets that targeted Haifa and the center of Israel were made by the Syrian military and given to the Resistance. Syria was an aid to the Resistance and gave [us] weapons that we used in the 2006 July War. Not only in Lebanon, but also in the Gaza Strip [against Israel in the 2008-2009 war].”
No other Arab regime, claimed Nasrallah, was willing to do what Syria did. He did, however, advise the Syrian regime to engage in dialogue with the opposition.
Nasrallah also displayed his sensitivity to resentment by other Lebanese to Shia dominance and called for moderation by all parties
“I call on all of you to be mature. Today there is a lot of sectarian rhetoric. Preachers should confront this. If a Shia says something that insults another sect, we, as Shia scholars have to stand up in his face and silence him. The Sunnis, the Christians and the Druze have to do the same".
The Now Lebanon website responded to Nasrallah's speech and called Hizbullah a one trick pony that could only speak of the Israeli threat, when the Syrian regime was doing much worse things than Israel and to its own people to boot. Hizbullah's performance against Israel did not outweigh the damage it caused Lebanon:
"We must never lose sight of the fact that, despite putting up a creditable performance against the strongest national army in the Middle East, the 2006 July War and the death and destruction that came with it was Hizbullah’s doing. If we are to commemorate that sad month, it must not just be to bask in Hizbullah’s smugness, but to remember the loss of life and ensure that such a blunder, for that is what it was, must never happen again."
Hizbullah would like to raise the specter of war with Israel where only Hizbullah could provide for Lebanon's defense and the terrorist attack in Bulgaria may have been designed to serve this purpose.
The writer is a political scientist and Arutz Sheva's Global Agenda and political analyst. He is featured regularly in the Hebrew and English Israeli press, lives in Tekoa.