If MK Shaul Mofaz defeats MK Tzipi Livni in the primary race in Kadima next week, the center-left camp will likely diminish in the next elections and nationalist camp can be expected to grow considerably. This is one of the main findings of a poll conducted by the Panels institute for the Knesset Channel and aired Thursday.
The poll shows Kadima losing over half of its Knesset seats in the next elections in any case. Asked how they would vote if elections were held today and If Mofaz heads Kadima, the poll's participants yielded 6 Knesset seats for the party. If elections were held today and If Livni continues to head Kadima, the party would get 11 seats, according to the poll.
Both results are a far cry from Kadima's current 28 seats, which make it the largest party in the 18th Knesset.
With Mofaz at the helm of Kadima, Labor gets 19 seats and Likud garners 31. With Livni maintaining her leadership position, Labor gets 16 seats and Likud garners 30. Labor would gain from a Mofaz victory. This may be because many women would leave Kadima and vote for Labor, which is headed by a woman, too.
The nationalist majority in the Knesset will grow to 67 seats versus 53 for the center-left side, if Livni wins control of Kadima. If she loses to Mofaz, the nationalist majority in the Knesset will grow to 73 seats versus 47 for the center-left. It was not clear if this prediction took into account the fact that Mofaz is likely to join a coalition headed by Likud, while Livni is not.