Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas’ “Go for broke” strategy in the United Nations may backfire. He is counting on the backing of temporary Security Council member Brazil. which will leave the Security Council January 1 and be replaced by Guatemala, an unlikely supporter.
Abbas needs the support of nine of the 15 members of the Security Council to bring his bid for United Nations membership to the General Assembly or leave the United States in the uncomfortable role of party pooper by carrying out its vow to veto the motion.
Five new temporary members of the Council will be elected January 1, and Brazil will lose its place. Guatemala, which is running unopposed, has consistently backed the Palestinian Authority but “can be persuaded to abstain” by the United States, Jeff Laurenti, a U.N. analyst at Century Foundation, told the Bloomberg news service.
Brazil might be replaced by Azerbaijan, the only Muslim applicant for the Eastern European seat, but it is far from certain of being chosen as a temporary Security Council member.
The loss of Brazil may pressure Abbas into asking for a vote as early as next month in order to gain a moral victory of his needed two-thirds majority, even if the United States vetoes the move.
However, Abbas for the time being can be sure of only eight supporters – Brazil, Russia, China, Gabon, Nigeria, Lebanon, India and South Africa.
Abbas may have tripped himself by delaying the vote because he now is under pressure from the European Union to resume direct talks with Israel. He still insists on preconditions of Israel’s virtually accepting his territorial and political demands ahead of time. One tactic to achieve his aims has been to require Israel to freeze all building for Jews in Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria.
He previously has rejected a building freeze, claiming it did not go far enough, and the Palestinian Authority already has dismissed Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s offer last week for a freeze on government building in Judea and Samaria.