There should be no mistake: The Kremlin proposal for negotiations with Iran on the nuclear issue represents a victory for Teheran.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov proposed a step-by-step plan to the Iranians: Iranian transparency on the nuclear issue will be requited by an easing of sanctions. Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi responded to the proposals by noting that "if one is starting on a long journey, one has to take the first step."
The comparison is very apt as the Iranians have specialized in long negotiation journeys that have gone nowhere. First they will study the proposal: "the Russian proposal has good elements" said the Iranian. Iran is in no hurry to give an immediate answer; let the centrifuges turn for another few months.
In the meantime, Iran will continue to play the innocent and deny its nuclear weapons intentions.
In an interview with Russia Today Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claimed that nuclear weapons are passeי and will not be a factor in the 21st century. Nuclear weapons have not availed America in Afghanistan nor the Zionist regime in Lebanon and Gaza he said.
Besides, such weapons run counter to Iran's innate humanitarian instincts: “We do not want nuclear weapons for a few reasons… This weapon is inhumane. Because of our faith, we are against it. Our religion says it is prohibited, and we are religious people.”
The Russians would probably appreciate this last bit of posturing. When Truman informed Stalin about the bomb at Postdam in 1945, the Soviet leader exhibited no reaction to the information but as soon as he was back home, he cracked the whip to speed up the Soviet nuclear project.
The Russians tried out their proposal in July in a meeting with Barack Obama. The Americans were not enthusiastic and wanted greater pressure applied on Iran. However, once the military option is off the table and sanctions have been applied, it is impossible to ramp up sanctions without the acquiescence of all permanent members of the UN Security Council.
Therefore, Russia gets a chance to try its approach that resembles the carrot and the stick approach towards North Korea that soon became a carrot and twig approach. Iran gets a further breathing space for weaponization and producing a delivery system.
TheRussians are not afraid of an Iranian bomb and have no problems dealing with the Islamic Republic. What has made matters worse is that the Lavrov proposal came in the context of a visit to Teheran by the head of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev. Russia and Iran agreed to work for regional security under the aegis of the United Nations or via theShanghai Cooperation Organization that is led by Russia and China.
Additionally, coordination was announced between the Security Council staffs of both countries. "This involves new threats such as international terrorism, drug trafficking and others," remarked the visiting Patrushev.
The Russians foresee an American retreat from Afghanistan that threatens them with a heroin inundation and reinvigorated Islamic nationalism. Iran shares a community of interest with Russia on these issues.