A poll taken by the French Institute of public opinion (IFOP) shows that Francois Hollande has overtaken Martine Aubry in the competition that will decide who will be the French Socialist presidential candidate in 2012.
The Socialist candidate has a good chance of restoring the presidency to the left for the first time since 1995, judging by the public dislike for President Nicolas Sarkozy.
Up to now, Aubry led Hollande 40% to 38%. The current figures show that among supporters of the French left (the French Socialist Primary will be an open primary), Hollande is now favored by 42% over Aubry's 34%. The party's candidate in 2007, Segolene Royal, trails badly with 13%.
When the question is limited to Socialist party voters in the assumption that they are more likely to turn out to vote, Hollande's lead extends further. He leads Aubry 48% to 36% with Royal garnering a mere 9%.
One must introduce a caveat that this is the first time that the Socialist party is opening up its primary to all and therefore the pollsters are at a disadvantage. Hollande's lead at this stage still appears formidable. His strategists believe that their candidate is more of a natural on the stump and uses the media more effectively than his rival, who appears stilted.
Another explanation is suggested when the percentages are broken down by voting groups. The results show that Hollande's lead is based on a marked preference for him amongst two major groups: Males and older voters.
When the original favorite for the party's candidacy, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, appeared certain to take a fall for a morals crime, Aubry may have benefited from a desire to tilt towards a female candidate. Now that many Frenchmen view Strauss Kahn as a victim of imperfect American justice, the tilt works in the opposite direction.
Older voters are either uncomfortable with the idea of a female president or believe that a female candidate would be handicapped in competing against Nicolas Sarkozy or any candidate of the right.
As for what accounts for the surprising weakness of Ms. Royal, she had advantages in 2007 that have disappeared.
As opposed to other countries, in France, presidential candidates frequently get more than one chance. Francois Mitterrand, was an unsuccessful candidates in both 1965 and 1974 before he finally captured the presidency in 1981; Jacques Chirac, failed in 1981 and 1988 before achieving success in 1995. In these cases the candidates had strong control of their parties and therefore, although defeated, they survived to fight another election.
However, Royal was an outsider who catapulted herself to the Socialist nomination in 2007 riding a media wave and a desire to punish the party elephants – the veteran leaders who fought each other and enabled the right to retain power. Royal can no longer pose as an outsider and there are no genuine elephants around to rally against.