Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan may have wished that he stayed in Normandy, France, the site of the G-8 meeting, because he returns home to face a no-confidence motion. The opposition Liberal Democratic Party and its ally the New Komeito are threatening to table the motion.
Normally given the sizable majority of Kan's Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) Kan could have shrugged off the threat, but he cannot do so for two reasons:
The first is that the opposition is no longer afraid of stirring up a backlash by proposing a no-confidence motion in the midst of a crisis brought on by the natural disasters and the nuclear reactor meltdown. It feels cocky enough to raise the no-confidence motion over the government's handling of the crisis. This means that the opposition is riding a wave of popular anger against his government that was way down in the opinion polls even before the crisis.
Secondly, the DPJ majority is not completely assured, as the man referred to as the "shadow shogun", Ichiro Ozawa, the DPJ's powerbroker, is toying with the idea of backing the no-confidence motion. This would leave Kan with the option of resigning or of going to elections where his party could face defeat.
Ozawa has harsh words for Kan: "If the prime minister cannot implement policies, it's meaningless for him to stay in power". He added "The sooner he is replaced, the better".
Ozawa would need a total of 80 defectors to bring down Kan and he may not have them. Additionally, a successful no-confidence motion could prove to be a pyrrhic victory, since it would split the DPJ and leave Kan's successor with a gutted party.
The Prime Minister has optimistically accepted Barack Obama's invitation to make an official visit to the United States. “We are deeply respectful of the outstanding leadership that Prime Minister Kan has provided during a time of great crisis in his country” said Obama in announcing the invitation.
In general Kan is trying to make political capital from the solicitude demonstrated toward Japan at the G-8 meeting and he emphasizes the fact that he has become a seasoned diplomat "I was able to attend my second G-8 summit meeting in a row and build relationships with other leaders that allow us to frankly exchange opinions," he said. "Relations of trust among state leaders are important for smoothly implementing diplomatic policies."
Kan may be correct in his appraisal that foreign leaders like Obama would like him to stay on. Both the United States and the EU would like to reach trade agreements with Japan and neither relishes the idea of a revolving door Japanese premiership, where the longevity of the man at the top is under a year. They may believe that Kan is the best bet for reaching an agreement that would, to a large extent, do away with protectionist policies favoring the Japanese agricultural sector.
Another person who would like the Prime Minister to stay on is Hiromasa Yonekura, Chairman of the Japan Business Federation."In order to allow Japan to be trusted internationally, the prime minister must remain in office for more than one year or, if possible, two,"
The Federation Chairman supports trade liberalization but most importantly, as one can gauge from his statement, he would like his country to display a modicum of political stability. Kan's major asset may just turn out to be the short-lived tenures of his predecessors.