Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has awarded the Iranian Revolutionary Guards with $21 billion in contracts, a reward for their suppressing opposition protests and a blow to American hopes for popular overthrow of the regime.
The Guards’ economic coup comes shortly after U.S. President Barack Obama managed to convince the United Nations Security Council to approve new sanctions against Iran, far weaker than what he originally envisioned.
The Revolutionary Guards, besides acting as the “enforcer” for Ahmadinejad, also operate various companies that prime its economic pump and give it an increasingly strong power base within the Islamic Republic regime. After his re-election, Ahmadinejad gave the Guards and their Basij militia allies 13 of 21 Cabinet posts.
Winning the huge contracts further weakens reformers, who have bitterly protested what is largely regarded outside the country as a rigged re-election of Ahmadinejad last year.
The Revolutionary Guards flooded the streets of Iran last Saturday, the anniversary of the election, and their presence helped to virtually preclude any demonstrations. In last year’s protest, more than 100 opposition activists are thought to have been killed and hundreds of others were jailed or “disappeared.”
Among the contracts the Guards have won is a $7 billion project in the huge South Pars oil and gas field, allowing them to win handsome profits and line the pockets of their leaders regardless of the impact of United Nations sanctions. The South Pars field is the world’s largest single natural-gas deposit and its development has faced delays because of American pressure on companies not to invest in Iran’s energy sector. The Guards’ taking over the project effectively weakens the sanctions against the country.
The Guards also control airfields and the seaport, run profitable smuggling rackets and have their fingers in public projects, including roads, ship building and telecommunications.
"The Revolutionary Guards are making the case that they are the guarantors of the regime's survival and security," according to Mark Dubowitz, who advises the U.S. government as head of the Iran Energy Project at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies policy institute.
He was quoted by the London Telegraph as saying, "From Ahmadinejad's perspective, this is case of 'you do our business and we'll give you yours.’“ The people know full well that the government does not hesitate to unleash its paramilitary forces."
Keeping up the optimistic tone that U.S. President Barack Obama has voiced since his election 18 months ago, Dubowitz reasoned that the Guards’ new wealth will also lead to their downfall.
"If we want sanctions to cripple the Iranian energy sector and squeeze the lifeblood out of the economy, then the increased role of the Revolutionary Guards is actually a good thing," he said. "They don't have the expertise to run the sector and Ahmadinejad is doing us all a favor by firing competent technocrats and replacing them with Revolutionary Guards loyalists."
Until that happens, if it happens, the opposition is virtually non-existent after last year’s street demonstrations. One Iranian journalist, who was afraid to disclose his name, told the Telegraph, "You see the occasional anti-government sticker on a wall or on a bus seat, but that is it. Most of the expression of opposition and protest is now limited to friendly conversations between individuals and only in trusted circles."