Predictions of negative economic growth in Iran may undermine the strength of the Iranian Islamic regime as the United States tries to convince the United Nations Security Council to place harsh sanctions on the country.
Majles Research Center chairman, Ahmad Tavakkol, who is a strong critic of the government of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, forecasts negative economic growth of 1.5-2 percent for the Iranian calendar year that ends this month. He also projects a zero or less than zero growth rate for the following year.
The pessimistic forecasts for the economy were issued shortly after Ahmadinejad claimed that growth this year reached 6.8 percent. Further compounding the contradiction is the Central Bank’s own prediction that growth would be only around 2 percent this year, and the International Monetary Fund’s figures are 2-2.5 percent.
The United States wants sanctions against imports of refined oil to Iran, a move that could seriously cripple its economy. The American’s reasoning is that pressure on the pocketbooks of Tehran would convince it to cooperate with United Nations inspectors of Iran’s growing nuclear power plants.
Iran has threatened that if Western European countries back sanctions, Iran will cut oil exports. The Islamic Republic is a major exporter of crude oil but imports a significant amount of refined petroleum because of its lack of refining capacity.
Iran has denied accusations it is enriching uranium in order to produce a nuclear weapon. Ahmadinejad several times has stated that the “Zionist state,” meaning Israel, must be annihilated.
His regime has suppressed riots that broke out since his re-election last June which opponents charged was rigged. One tactics has been the use of a “cyber army” that attacks websites of opponents.
In recent weeks, the Cyber Army, has graven credit for hacking the Twitter website, the Chinese search engine Baidu, the website of Radio Zamaneh, a Persian-language radio station based in the Netherlands and affiliated with reformist elements and websites affiliated with students reformism and with supporters of opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi.
Anti-regime groups also have attacked pro-government news websites and the official website Ahmadinejad, according to the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center