Three million Lebanese citizens are voting today in an election that may turn their country into an Iranian-Hizbullah satellite.
High voter turnout and long lines have already been reported. The numbers have been bolstered by busloads of Lebanese citizens living in Syria that have crossed the border for the election. Polls are open from 7 AM to 7 PM in 26 electoral districts.
Two main blocs are running for power: The Hizbullah-led opposition, called the “March 8” alliance, which currently has 14 seats in the 128-member Parliament, and the pro-Western “March 14” Future Party coalition led by Saad Hariri, son of the late assassinated Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
The latter’s assassination in early 2005 has been the fulcrum of seeting tensions in the country, with Hizbullah, Syria and Israel all accused by various elements of having perpetrated it. A United Nations report found that pro-Syrian and Hizbullah groups were behind the assassination.
Hizbullah is expected to increase its power, leading to increased Iranian involvement in the country's military. Whether it will win an absolute victory is very much in doubt, however. Many observers feel that the Christian bloc will determine the outcome. Christians in Lebanon make up some 40-45% of the populace; 10% are Druze, and nearly all of the remainder are Muslim.
The custom in Lebanon for over 60 years has been that the president must be a Maronite Christian, the parliament speaker a Shiite Muslim, and the prime minister - a Sunni Muslim.
Though Hizbullah enjoys wide support throughout the country, some analysts say that many of its supporters do not want to go so far as to give the militant organization absolute control over the parliament. It is feared that a Hizbullah-led country will be ostracized and isolated by the Western world.
Lebanon last held elections four years ago, shortly after Hariri’s assassination, and the pro-West, anti-Syrian bloc won. The country suffered a Christian-Moslem civil war in the 1970’s and 80’s.
Some 50,000 policemen and security men are on hand to maintain order during the elections, and 200 international observers from the European Union and the Carter Center are keeping watch as well.