Hizbullah, headed by Hassan Nasrallah, is campaigning quietly and trying to show a moderate tone as its pro-Syrian coalition gears up for a possible victory in the June 7 parliamentary elections.
The exercise in democracy, similar to the 2006 Palestinian Authority election that Hamas won, would be a large setback for the United States, which has given Lebanon more than $1 billion in aid since 2006 in an effort to shore up anti-Syrian parties.
The U.S. is ostensibly showing neutrality in the election campaign, partly because of its embarrassment when Hamas defeated the Fatah faction in the 2006 vote in the PA, according to the Associated Press. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton paid a brief and surprise visit to Lebanon this week, but did not meet with any government officials except for President Michel Suleiman.
The U.S. is keeping a stiff upper lip on the prospect of a Hizbullah victory. “We obviously want to see free elections,” U.S. State Department spokesman Robert Wood told reporters. “We’re going to support the Lebanese government. We certainly want to see, you know, a government that has moderate views in place.”
However, former U.S. Ambassador to Beirut, Michele Sison, told the Naharnet news website that more American aid "will be evaluated in the context of the new government's policies and statements."
Hizbullah is not worried, and is even happy over the Clinton visit. American “interference in the past was never positive," Hizbullah spokesman Ibrahim Mussawi said on the organization's Al-Manar television satellite network.
The terrorist organization, like Hamas, operates a tight administration against corruption, and has built up a strong social assistance program that has created a “state within a state” in southern Lebanon. It also is in strong control of approximately a quarter of Beirut’s Shi’ite Muslim neighborhoods.
Its political arm and pro-Syrian allies, through massive street demonstrations and violence, have succeeded in winning veto power in the Cabinet over major government decisions. The party itself has less than a dozen seats in the 128-member parliament, but its Christian and pro-Syrian allies have a good chance of winning the June 7 elections, according to AP.
Its victory would stun the U.S. just as the Hamas victory did, leaving the American-backed factions in a minority and in the shadow of an increasingly strong Syrian-Iranian-Hizbullah-Hamas axis. "It would be a huge defeat for the West," said Israeli-based analyst Barry Rubin.
Nasrallah already is planning for a victory and has said he would invite opposition parties into a pro-Syrian national government, but his deputy, Sheikh Naim Kassam, added that the Western world would have to accept the results.
Britain has has indicated its willingness to talk with Hizbullah, a move that would help prevent the terrorist party from suffering the same financial sanctions imposed on Hamas after 2006. A Hizbullah victory would allow it to freely arm Lebanon with advanced Iranian and Syrian weapons aimed at Israel.