Israeli media, echoed by the foreign press, have called last week's election results a "swing to the right," but a close look at the elections since 1977 shows that the religious and nationalist parties have maintained a steady plurality or majority of Knesset members. The parties themselves - and not the public--have "swung to the right."
"The center-right and religious alliance…has dominated Israel for most of the past 25 years," according to Prof. Hillel Frisch, a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies and the co-editor of the upcoming book Israel at the Polls.
Even in the current Knesset session that is about to end and in which the nationalist and religious parties' 50 Knesset Members were their lowest representation since 1973, they nevertheless had only three less seats than Kadima, Meretz and Labor.
The myth that most Israelis have voted for the secular and leftist parties has been fostered by the leading parties' ability to form coalitions and by the internal change of the makeup of Kadima.
In 2003, nationalist and religious parties held 67 seats, even more than in the government formed by Menachem Begin in 1977 when the Likud won 43 seats.
The nationalist and religious parties have held no less than 59 seats - and usually an absolute majority of more than 61 - in every Knesset since 1973, when the Alignment, an alliance of Labor and Mapam, won 51 seats.
However, the failure of the nationalist and religious parties to unite their many factions often left the Labor party able to wheel and deal with the religious parties to form a coalition.
The illusion of a leftist plurality in the outgoing Knesset was weaved by the existence of the Kadima party, a mixed bag of former Likud and Labor members. It included a hawkish bloc, headed by former IDF Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz, which at one point in the current government almost rebelled against constant concessions to the Palestinian Authority by outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
The illusion of a leftist plurality in the outgoing Knesset was weaved by the existence of the Kadima party, a mixed bag of former Likud and Labor members.
Kadima was founded by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon when the Likud balked at the 2005 Disengagement program that ended with the destruction of Jewish communities in Gaza and in parts of northern Samaria.
However, many "soft" nationalists left the Likud in order to gain political favor based on the trust that Sharon would not make a wholesale surrender of Judea and Samaria to the Palestinian Authority. After he suffered a massive stroke that has since left him comatose for more than three years, Olmert took over and in effect changed the identity of the party to a clear anti-nationalist agenda.
Kadima won 28 seats last week, only one less than in 2006, but it is not the same party, as evidenced by last week's voting that showed "musical political chairs."
The nationalist religious parties have only seven seats in the upcoming Knesset, a drop of two mandates, which the Likud probably gained at the expense of Ichud Leumi (National Union) and Jewish Home.
Labor lost six MKs and Meretz lost two, and those eight mandates probably went to Kadima, which would have given it 37 MKs; however, nine seats were lost to the Likud and Israel Is Our Home (Yisrael Beiteinu).
A New Reality
The result is that while the nationalist and religious parties' numbers did not change dramatically from previous elections, they now are more committed to their ideology.
The real significance of the election is that Kadima's apparent strength "masks the deeper and much more enduring socio-political ascendancy of the political right, both nationalist and religious," according to Prof. Frisch.
"Kadima leader Tzipi Livni must have realized in the privacy of her home the hollowness of her victory," he wrote following the election. "Emerging now is the potential for a one-bloc dominant variant: a soft right-wing bloc that spells an end to the Oslo era of grandiose peacemaking with the Palestinians."
Underlining the position of the Kadima party under Sharon, Frisch stated that the current "soft right wing," with the exception of Ichud Leumi, favors diplomatic positions that characterized the Labor Party before the Oslo peace process.
"The Israeli common man is today mostly to be found in the Likud, Shas and Israel Beiteinu parties." Prof, Frisch added. "At Likud headquarters, supporters mostly of Sephardic origin surrounded Benny Begin, hugging and chanting, 'Bibi, Bibi, Begin, Begin.' In short, the two blocs represent two markedly different cultures: a warm, traditional and brotherly culture, which includes the Russian variant – which is the dominant culture in Israel; versus a cold, achievement-oriented, secularized culture.
"Livni also made the strategic mistake of writing off the religious public, and by so doing, strengthened the center-right and religious alliance that has dominated Israel for most of the past 25 years."
He also noted that "Shas has long ago ceased to be an ultra-Orthodox party; it represents a much broader swath of Sephardim. Even United Torah Judaism is seeking to broaden its appeal. The ultra-Orthodox Ashkenazi party tried to win more votes by stressing the role of the ultra-Orthodox in fighting for social welfare benefits for all, irrespective of origin and religion."