Public opinion surveys released Thursday morning show that the Likud Party has regained its lead over Kadima, and that Labor is losing popularity.
A poll taken by Shvakim Panorama for Voice of Israel Radio's Second Channel shows a total reversal of the trend of a few days ago. Instead of Kadima leading by 1-3 seats, as seen immediately after Tzipi Livni decided on new elections, the Likud is now shown to be leading by 3 Knesset mandates.
The Shvakim poll shows the Likud receiving 25-26 seats in the Knesset in the coming elections, and Kadima only 22-23 seats. Labor will receive only 16-17 seats, according to this poll.
Broadcaster: Don't Pay Any Attention
Veteran Israel Broadcasting Authority broadcaster Ayala Hasson dramatically introduced the results. She warned that polls will occasionally show a certain party plummeting and close to disappearing, and made it clear that such polls need not be taken too seriously.
A second poll, carried out by New Wave Research for the Yisrael HaYom daily newspaper, shows a tighter race between Likud and Kadima, and a sharper drop for Labor. The survey shows Likud leading Kadima by a 31-30 margin, and Labor dropping to only 13 seats.
In the current Knesset, which was voted in nearly three years ago, Kadima has 29 seats, Labor 19, and the Likud only 12.
Smaller Parties to Remain Small
The New Wave poll places Labor just above Shas, which currently has 11 seats and is forecast to receive one less in the upcoming elections. The Shvakim survey shows Shas receiving 12 seats and possibly more.
The surveys are in agreement that the United Torah Judaism and Meretz will remain a their current level of 5-6, with a one-seat advantage to UTJ; that the Pensioners are likely to disappear from the electoral map; that the Greens are, as usual, just at or under the minimum level for Knesset representation; and that the Arab parties will garner 10 Knesset seats altogether.
In the Nationalist Camp
The respective fates of the parties promoting Jewish sovereignty over Judea and Samaria - Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home), headed by Avigdor Lieberman, and National Union/National Religious Party - are not entirely clear. They currently have 11 and 9 seats, respectively. The Shvakim poll foresees them either remaining at their current levels or losing one seat each. New Wave's prognosis is graver, giving Lieberman only 8 and NU/NRP only 6.
The 9 MKs of the NU/NRP convened last night to finalize details on the way in which their seven member parties and movements will run together in the upcoming elections. A panel of candidates will be chosen by a board of public personalities, but final details have still not yet been ironed out.
Labor Primaries
In Labor, party leader Defense Minister Ehud Barak has announced that, contrary to rumors, the party will hold primaries to choose its list of Knesset candidates. Some MKs had suggested that the current line-up be retained, in order to save the money involved in holding primaries.
Internal Kadima Tensions
In Kadima, party leader Tzipi Livni met with her main competitor within the party, Sha'ul Mofaz, and asked him to lead the party's election campaign. Though he wanted to have the party's second slot reserved for him, and thus avoid having to run in the primaries, Kadima's legal counsel said this was impossible. Livni told Mofaz, however, "From my point of view, you are the party's #2 man."
Tensions between the Livni and Mofaz camps has not abated, however, and Mofaz has reportedly told confidantes,"Livni is taking the party towards extremism. Her way is far from mine; this is a loss of direction." The differences between them have been manifest of late in Livni's attack on Shas as "blackmailers" and her promise to promote civil marriages. Mofaz himself says he is more "tradition-minded" than the way Kadima is now being portrayed.
Mofaz supporters within Kadima include MKs Shneller, Tirosh, Avraham-Belila, Tal, Elkin and Boim.