For the first time since its founding nearly three years ago, the Kadima party is holding primaries to choose its leader - and Israel's apparent next Prime Minister.
By 2 PM, only 13.3% of the eligible voters had exercised their right to do so.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who had hoped to continue leading Kadima for years to come, agreed nearly three months ago to hold party primaries after mounting evidence of his apparent criminal financial activity reached a peak. The four candidates are Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Transportation Minister Sha'ul Mofaz, Public Security Minister Avi Dichter, and Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit.
Livni leads in pre-election surveys, but Mofaz is said to have a better "get out the vote" infrastructure in place. Conventional wisdom says that the higher the voter turnout, the better are Livni's chances.
The 114 polling stations in 93 locations across the country are open from 10 AM until 10 PM, with some 74,000 members eligible to vote. Slightly more than a quarter of the members are considered "ideological members," with the remainder having been mass-canvassed by various "vote collectors."
Each of the four candidates had voted by 11 AM in their hometowns: Dichter in Ashkelon, Mofaz in Kokhav Yair, Sheetrit in Yavneh, and Livni in Tel Aviv. Livni made a Tuesday night visit to the Old City of Jerusalem, where she prayed at the Western Wall and placed a note between its ancient boulders. Olmert voted in Givat Ze'ev, north of Jerusalem.
When Will Olmert Resign?
Though Olmert did not say so at first, he ultimately agreed not to run in the primaries, announcing at the end of July, "When a new party leader is chosen, I will resign in order to enable him/her to form a new government."
Olmert's declaration has been open to interpretation, with some saying he meant he would resign as Prime Minister, and others insisting he only meant to resign as party leader. In actuality, the difference is small, as even his resignation as Prime Minister would not take effect until the new party leader forms a new government - which could take weeks or months.
The only way for Olmert to actually leave office is for him to declare that he can no longer fulfill his duties - which would then vault his designated substitute, Tzipi Livni, into the Premiership, no matter who wins the primaries. He did not promise to do so, however, nor is he expected to do anything to pave Livni's way into office.
Instead, Olmert is likely to tender his resignation - and consequently, that of his entire government - to President Shimon Peres within a few days after the winner of the primaries is known.
Once he does so, his government remains in office as a caretaker regime, while the new Kadima party leader is given up to 42 days to form a new government. If s/he does not succeed, Peres can choose another MK to try to form a government. If this effort, too, does not succeed within 28 days, yet a third candidate can be chosen by the Knesset to form a government, with 14 days to do so. If still no government is formed, national elections must be held within 90 days - and the winner will then have 42 days to form a government, and so on. Throughout this period, Olmert will remain Prime Minister.
Another possibility, of course, is that the new Kadima leader will form a government within days. Both Livni and Mofaz say that this is their intention.
The voting in Kadima is not computerized, and the official results are therefore not expected much before dawn on Thursday. The winner will be crowned on Thursday, if one of the candidates receives more than 40% of the vote, or only next week, in the event that a second-round run-off is necessary between the two top vote-getters.