The drama is mounting in the Kadima party in anticipation of its nationwide primaries for party leader on Wednesday. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni leads in the polls, but Transportation Minister Sha'ul Mofaz is confident he will win.

The other two candidates are Public Security Minister Avi Dichter and Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit, both of whom are not expected to receive more than a handful of percentage points of the vote.

If any of the four candidates wins at least 40% of the vote in the first round, s/he will be pronounced the winner. If no one reaches this threshhold, the top two candidates must face off in a second round a week later.

Mofaz Predicts Exact Margin of Victory

Mofaz made an unprecedented announcement on Sunday, predicting that he will win the first round of voting with 43.7% of the vote.  Analysts chided him, but he grabbed many headlines and much attention with the declaration.

The 114 polling stations in 93 locations across the country will be open from 10 AM until 10 PM, with some 74,000 members eligible to vote.  Slightly more than a quarter of the members are considered "ideological members," with the remainder having been mass-canvassed by various "vote collectors."

This is the first time Kadima is holding primaries; its first leader, Ariel Sharon, founded the party, and incumbent Prime Minister Ehu Olmert took over when Sharon suffered a stroke.  Sharon has been in a coma since early 2006.

Hawk vs. Dove

The race between Mofaz and Livni is shaping up to be one between a hawk and a dove.  Livni promotes, and has been heavily involved in, the negotiations with the Palestinian Authority over the formation of a PA state, the future division of Jerusalem, and the entry of Arab refugees or their descendants into Israel.

Mofaz, on the other hand, has taken a more hawkish stance.  He said recently that if elected, he plans to renew the policy of striking directly at terrorist leaders. Islamic Jihad released a response stating, "We take Mofaz's threats seriously, and we have hundreds of rockets ready to hit the Zionist settlements and turn the residents' lives into hell."

A top Mofaz aide has also said that peace with the Palestinian Authority cannot be achieved so fast, and that "whoever runs towards peace, ends up falling."

The Polls Show

A poll taken last week by Teleseker of an unspecified number of Kadima members found that Livni enjoys nearly a 19% lead over Mofaz, 46.4% to 27.6%.  Mofaz is assumed to have a stronger infrastructure in "getting the vote out," however.