As the Annapolis summit draws nearer, and as Prime Minister Ehud Olmert makes clearer his plans to forge a final-status agreement that will involve "major concessions," Minister Avigdor Lieberman considers his party's future in the coalition - and has met with Kadima Party MKs to help him decide.



Lieberman heads the Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) party, the most right-wing party in the coalition.  If both Shas (12 Knesset seats) and Yisrael Beiteinu (11) quit the 78-member coalition, the government will be left without a supportive majority in the Knesset, and will fall. 

Political pundits agree that Olmert is not only aware that Yisrael Beiteinu and the hareidi-Sephardic Shas party are both likely to bolt his government because of his planned Annapolis concessions - but he is even prepared for it.  Olmert's strategy is straightforward: Instead of being toppled from national grace because of the police investigations against him or because of the Winograd Commission findings, he is willing to have his government fall, and bring about new elections, on the issue of his "desire to make peace."



Some reports say that Olmert will agree to hold a national referendum - or new elections - to decide whether to ratify a final agreement with the Palestinian Authority that he hopes to reach in the coming year.  According to Olmert's plan, the Annapolis summit, scheduled for later this month, is to provide the backdrop for a joint Israel-PA statement of intent to reach an agreement; this will be followed by intensive months of negotiations - and then either a referendum or new elections.



The thinking is that Olmert is counting on winning the referendum and swaying the silent fence-sitting majority by explaining that once an agreement has been reached, Israel would be committing international suicide by rejecting it. 



What Are You Doing There?

Nationalist camp leaders are attempting to convince Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu to quit the government before this scenario can come to fruition.  In a recent Knesset speech, Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu addressed them and asked pointedly, "What are you doing in this government? Do you really agree to let Hamas rule neighborhoods in Jerusalem?... Olmert's plan to give the Palestinian Authority a state in Judea, Samaria, Gaza and much of Jerusalem is a danger to Israel, and you are not preventing the danger by sitting in the government. To the contrary - you are giving it legitimacy and allowing it to happen."

Makor Rishon and Jerusalem Post columnist Caroline Glick has written, "[Shas leader Eli] Yishai and Lieberman... don't want to take the only step open to them if they truly wish to prevent damage to the country. That step, of course, is resignation from the Olmert government and support for new elections. And Olmert knows this. It is because he understands their ardent desire to remain in office that Olmert feels he runs no political risk by negotiating away Israel's survivability to Abbas. Yishai's and Lieberman's vacuous pronouncements enable Olmert to move forward toward national capitulation."



Meeting with Kadima and Shas MKs

The commuter paper Yisrael Hayom reports that in Lieberman's recent meetings with Kadima MKs, he attempted to ascertain the extent of their opposition or support for Olmert's policies.  More than half of the 29 Kadima MKs are former Likud members, whose support for concessions is shallow, if at all. 



Lieberman is also expected to meet with Shas leader Eli Yishai today (Wednesday).