The Labor Party is in high gear with its primaries two months away - in the shadow of Winograd Commission findings that may trigger new national elections.

It's Barak vs. Ayalon

Front-runners in the Labor Party race are MK Ami Ayalon and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak. The incumbent leader, Defense Minister Amir Peretz, is not considered to have much of a chance, and MKs Ophir Pines and Danny Yatom are also lagging far behind.



Backing Barak are former Labor leader Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, Labor Secretary-General MK Eitan Cabel, Ministers Shalom Simchon and Yitzchak Herzog, and more. Ayalon, who has not garnered many endorsements - Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai is an exception - says, "The establishment backs Barak, but the public supports me."  Ayalon is considered very left-wing in his political orientation.

Ayalon has called upon Cabel to resign as Secretary-General, saying his support for Barak would color his decisions in the coming weeks. Cabel said in response, "I don't recall Ayalon asking me to resign when he asked for my support of his candidacy." Cabel said he would not intervene in decisions having to do with the primaries.



MK Ayalon supports Shimon Peres - a long-time Labor member and leader, who switched to Kadima last year - for the Presidency, while Barak said he backs dark-horse candidate Collette Avital of Labor. MK Ruby Rivlin of the Likud is also running for the high office; elections will be held in the Knesset this summer.

Peretz: I'll Take Finance

Though his chances of winning re-election as Labor leader are slim, Defense Minister Peretz is still in the news. At a gathering of supporters on Tuesday, he announced, "When I win re-election on May 28, I will immediately call Prime Minister Olmert and demand that he re-open the coalition agreement and give me the Finance Ministry." Peretz has been widely criticized for accepting the Defense Ministry last year - an area in which he has absolutely no experience - merely because of political and coalition considerations.



Peretz's new demand for the Finance Ministry has drawn derision. Some have asked why he did not make this ultimatum eight months ago when the government was formed, while his political rival Avigdor Lieberman, Minister of Strategic Affairs, has called upon him to draw the proper conclusions already now: "If he doesn't want the job, and since he's not suitable for it, let him be replaced immediately; why wait two months?"



Winograd Waiting in the Wings

Meanwhile, the Winograd Commission investigating last summer's war in Lebanon is poised to release some findings regarding Olmert and Peretz. Sources close to the commission have implied over the past two weeks that the findings would "rock" the political establishment. If calls for the Prime Minister's resignation increase, as they are expected to do, new elections could be held this summer - only a year and a quarter after the last ones.



Polls currently show that neither Kadima nor Labor would do very well if elections were held now - but rather that Binyamin Netanyahu of the Likud will be Israel's next Prime Minister.



A phone survey carried out this week by the Brain Base Survey Institute for Channel Ten news shows Likud support equivalent to 32 Knesset seats (the Likud currently has only 12), while Kadima would drop from 29 to 15. Labor's support stands at 16, down slightly from 19.

The Winograd Commission has been ordered to release precise protocols of testimonies it heard.  Prime Minister Olmert's office has said that this would be a violation of the rights of the witnesses - such as Olmert himself. The Commission is said to be considering appealing to the Supreme Court to have this obligation revoked or amended.



Ramon Cleared to Return

Meanwhile, former Justice Minister Chaim Ramon (Kadima) has been cleared to return to politics. He was convicted earlier this year of forcibly kissing a woman soldier, but the judges ruled today that this was not a crime of moral turpitude. He must serve 120 hours of community service and pay the soldier 15,000 shekels - but he may return to politics. Some politicians have already called for his return, possibly to replace beleaguered Finance Minister Avraham Hirschsohn. MK Zevulun Orlev (National Religious Party), however, says that for Ramon to return to the Cabinet would be yet another sign of the present government's corruption.