Speaking with Aharon Ze'evi-Farkash on behalf of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and the Shalom Toronto newspaper, Yonatan D. HaLevy reports that the retired Major-General sees increasing threats against Israel from an increasingly radicalized Islamic Middle East.
Ze'evi-Farkash, who stepped down from the army earlier this month, says he fears that the international community will not galvanize together to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities, despite the threat Iran poses to Europe and the West.
Sunnis vs. Shiites
Ze'evi-Farkash provided a brief analysis of the forces at work in the Middle East: "The Arab world has two major circles of influence. One is the Shiites, including Iran, the Shiites in Iraq, the Alawis in Syria, and Hizbullah in Lebanon. Opposing them are the moderate Sunnis, which include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and some Gulf States. The two groups are preparing to fight it out, as we can see by the declared intentions of some Sunni countries, led by Egypt, to develop nuclear capabilities, leading to an atom bomb."
Both camps, he said, have identified the problematic areas "that can provide either an opportunity or a threat, depending on their viewpoint: Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Authority. In all three, the state is weak, the terror organizations are getting stronger, [and] mini civil wars have developed: Shiite-Sunni in Iraq, the new vs. the old in Lebanon, and in the PA, it's Hamas against Fatah, and even Gaza against the West Bank [Judea and Samaria]."
Al-Qaeda
Al-Qaeda is a contributing element to unrest throughout the Middle East, the intelligence expert feels: "It is on the run and has not succeeded in carrying out a major attack in two years. But it is looking for the weak points in the moderate regimes... Syria, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan have become centers of Al-Qaeda operations, and it has influence in the PA as well. The Popular Resistance Committees [Gaza terrorist organization] is connected to Al-Qaeda."
Political Uncertainty in Lebanon
Asked about Lebanon, he said that the recent war did not bring about a sufficiently decisive outcome: "Israel impressively destroyed 60% of Hizbullah's medium-range rocket capabilities, as well as many command posts, and Lebanese and international forces are now deployed in the south, making it hard for Hizbullah. It is wrong to see only negative results of the war, as there were also achievements. Hizbullah understands that it needs several months to recover... Its goal is to strengthen its military power and its public standing, and that's why it's giving money to Lebanese citizens, especially Shiites, whose homes were destroyed in the war... The clash has been sharpened between the West-supported camp represented by Prime Minister Seniora, Hariri and Junblatt, which wishes to disarm Hizbullah, and the radical side of Michel Ayoun, Syria and Lebanon, which hopes to appoint the country's next president. In the coming months, the dispute will center around forming a unity government. Hizbullah wants to add three ministers to the government in order to erase Seniora's two-thirds majority. If they don't succeed, they will try to topple the government and even to kill Seniora. By the spring of 2007, Hizbullah may well have rehabilitated itself, bringing about a revolution in the country or at least paralyzing the government."
On the other hand, the IDF, too, "can be in a better position by next summer if the IDF learns the proper lessons from the war. We did not use our full power. If the army had begun a ground offensive at the start, it would have dealt Hizbullah a mortal blow. The Intelligence Wing scored a great achievement when it warned clearly in advance of a grave escalation in the summer of 2006. The General Staff has clearly evaluated that the military threats have intensified, and I feel that this will prod the IDF to learn the lessons and to prepare properly for the future."
Syria is Waiting
Ze'evi-Farkash does not feel that Syria will initiate a war against Israel, but notes hostile Syrian activity in every other sphere: "Assad supports Palestinian terrorism, helps Hizbullah, is considering starting terrorism in the Golan, enables Al-Qaeda members to travel freely to Iraq, and is likely to step in if the situation in Lebanon escalates."
Hamas Won't Change
Neither is Ze'evi-Farkash optimistic about the Gaza front: " Despite the international isolation and difficult economic situation, Hamas terrorism continues. For Hamas, ideology is more important than pragmatism. Though it is clear that Israel would not fire even one bullet into Gaza if the rockets stop, the terrorists don't take their own people's suffering into account, but rather continue their terrorism. I am not optimistic. A political solution is on the horizon in the form of a Fatah-Hamas unity government, but even then the change will only be tactical, while the Fatah-Hamas struggle will continue on the backs of the PA residents."
Though there have been calls - including by Arab Knesset Members - for another hudna [a Moslem term for a ceasefire until one side feels it is strong enough to break it - ed.], Ze'evi-Farkash says it is not a good idea: "Even if Hamas agrees to cease fire, there will always be terrorist elements who will not accept it... During the period of the [Oslo Accords], there were increasing Arab voices saying that Israel was an established fact. But recently, and especially after the recent war in Lebanon, the radical line of Iran, Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas is getting stronger, according to which Israel can be eradicated. The hudna expresses a lack of willingness to live with Israel, and our message to Hamas must be clear: We won't recognize you if you don't recognize us."
The Iranian Threat
Asked how the Iranian threat can be stopped, Ze'evi-Farkash said the world must recognize Iran's nuclear ambitions as a threat not only against Israel, but against Europe and the U.S. "Iran wants to be a super-power," he said, "and is encouraged by the West's inability to stop North Korea. However, Iran has not yet attained nuclear power, and it can still be stopped - if the world makes it clear that this is its united goal. But this message has not yet been given, because of disagreements among the various nations... There must be a host of political and economic sanctions... internal opposition to Ahmadinijad must be encouraged - and only if these steps don't work, a coalition must be built and military sanctions must be taken. For this, a strong network is needed, and I am not optimistic that a coalition like this will be formed."
How Jews Can Help
HaLevy asked Ze'evi-Farkash how the Jews of the Diaspora can help Israel. The veteran IDF officer took up the gauntlet eagerly: "I believe in mutual responsibility in the Nation of Israel, in the Torah of Israel, and in the Land of Israel. The only place where our roots and history can be actualized, and our future can be built, is in Israel. Living in Israel is an important commandment. As one who was born in the Diaspora, I know the difficulties facing Jews in making Aliyah to Israel, as called for in the prayers - but even so, they can help with donations, visits and forming a stronger connection between the Jews abroad and those here. Everyone in his own way can contribute to national unity and strength in order that the State continue to thrive."
Ze'evi-Farkash, who stepped down from the army earlier this month, says he fears that the international community will not galvanize together to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities, despite the threat Iran poses to Europe and the West.
Sunnis vs. Shiites
Ze'evi-Farkash provided a brief analysis of the forces at work in the Middle East: "The Arab world has two major circles of influence. One is the Shiites, including Iran, the Shiites in Iraq, the Alawis in Syria, and Hizbullah in Lebanon. Opposing them are the moderate Sunnis, which include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and some Gulf States. The two groups are preparing to fight it out, as we can see by the declared intentions of some Sunni countries, led by Egypt, to develop nuclear capabilities, leading to an atom bomb."
Both camps, he said, have identified the problematic areas "that can provide either an opportunity or a threat, depending on their viewpoint: Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Authority. In all three, the state is weak, the terror organizations are getting stronger, [and] mini civil wars have developed: Shiite-Sunni in Iraq, the new vs. the old in Lebanon, and in the PA, it's Hamas against Fatah, and even Gaza against the West Bank [Judea and Samaria]."
Al-Qaeda
Al-Qaeda is a contributing element to unrest throughout the Middle East, the intelligence expert feels: "It is on the run and has not succeeded in carrying out a major attack in two years. But it is looking for the weak points in the moderate regimes... Syria, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan have become centers of Al-Qaeda operations, and it has influence in the PA as well. The Popular Resistance Committees [Gaza terrorist organization] is connected to Al-Qaeda."
Political Uncertainty in Lebanon
Asked about Lebanon, he said that the recent war did not bring about a sufficiently decisive outcome: "Israel impressively destroyed 60% of Hizbullah's medium-range rocket capabilities, as well as many command posts, and Lebanese and international forces are now deployed in the south, making it hard for Hizbullah. It is wrong to see only negative results of the war, as there were also achievements. Hizbullah understands that it needs several months to recover... Its goal is to strengthen its military power and its public standing, and that's why it's giving money to Lebanese citizens, especially Shiites, whose homes were destroyed in the war... The clash has been sharpened between the West-supported camp represented by Prime Minister Seniora, Hariri and Junblatt, which wishes to disarm Hizbullah, and the radical side of Michel Ayoun, Syria and Lebanon, which hopes to appoint the country's next president. In the coming months, the dispute will center around forming a unity government. Hizbullah wants to add three ministers to the government in order to erase Seniora's two-thirds majority. If they don't succeed, they will try to topple the government and even to kill Seniora. By the spring of 2007, Hizbullah may well have rehabilitated itself, bringing about a revolution in the country or at least paralyzing the government."
On the other hand, the IDF, too, "can be in a better position by next summer if the IDF learns the proper lessons from the war. We did not use our full power. If the army had begun a ground offensive at the start, it would have dealt Hizbullah a mortal blow. The Intelligence Wing scored a great achievement when it warned clearly in advance of a grave escalation in the summer of 2006. The General Staff has clearly evaluated that the military threats have intensified, and I feel that this will prod the IDF to learn the lessons and to prepare properly for the future."
Syria is Waiting
Ze'evi-Farkash does not feel that Syria will initiate a war against Israel, but notes hostile Syrian activity in every other sphere: "Assad supports Palestinian terrorism, helps Hizbullah, is considering starting terrorism in the Golan, enables Al-Qaeda members to travel freely to Iraq, and is likely to step in if the situation in Lebanon escalates."
Hamas Won't Change
Neither is Ze'evi-Farkash optimistic about the Gaza front: " Despite the international isolation and difficult economic situation, Hamas terrorism continues. For Hamas, ideology is more important than pragmatism. Though it is clear that Israel would not fire even one bullet into Gaza if the rockets stop, the terrorists don't take their own people's suffering into account, but rather continue their terrorism. I am not optimistic. A political solution is on the horizon in the form of a Fatah-Hamas unity government, but even then the change will only be tactical, while the Fatah-Hamas struggle will continue on the backs of the PA residents."
Though there have been calls - including by Arab Knesset Members - for another hudna [a Moslem term for a ceasefire until one side feels it is strong enough to break it - ed.], Ze'evi-Farkash says it is not a good idea: "Even if Hamas agrees to cease fire, there will always be terrorist elements who will not accept it... During the period of the [Oslo Accords], there were increasing Arab voices saying that Israel was an established fact. But recently, and especially after the recent war in Lebanon, the radical line of Iran, Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas is getting stronger, according to which Israel can be eradicated. The hudna expresses a lack of willingness to live with Israel, and our message to Hamas must be clear: We won't recognize you if you don't recognize us."
The Iranian Threat
Asked how the Iranian threat can be stopped, Ze'evi-Farkash said the world must recognize Iran's nuclear ambitions as a threat not only against Israel, but against Europe and the U.S. "Iran wants to be a super-power," he said, "and is encouraged by the West's inability to stop North Korea. However, Iran has not yet attained nuclear power, and it can still be stopped - if the world makes it clear that this is its united goal. But this message has not yet been given, because of disagreements among the various nations... There must be a host of political and economic sanctions... internal opposition to Ahmadinijad must be encouraged - and only if these steps don't work, a coalition must be built and military sanctions must be taken. For this, a strong network is needed, and I am not optimistic that a coalition like this will be formed."
How Jews Can Help
HaLevy asked Ze'evi-Farkash how the Jews of the Diaspora can help Israel. The veteran IDF officer took up the gauntlet eagerly: "I believe in mutual responsibility in the Nation of Israel, in the Torah of Israel, and in the Land of Israel. The only place where our roots and history can be actualized, and our future can be built, is in Israel. Living in Israel is an important commandment. As one who was born in the Diaspora, I know the difficulties facing Jews in making Aliyah to Israel, as called for in the prayers - but even so, they can help with donations, visits and forming a stronger connection between the Jews abroad and those here. Everyone in his own way can contribute to national unity and strength in order that the State continue to thrive."