Halutz, who has not appeared in public in recent days, announced Tuesday that his deputy chief of staff, Major-General Moshe Kaplinsky (photo above), will work alongside Adam, overseeing all military forces operating in Lebanon.



The IDF spokesperson was quick to add that Lt.-General Halutz has total confidence in Adam’s performance, but wishes to appoint Kaplinsky to oversee air, land and naval forces operating in Lebanon. This, senior officers explain, is tantamount to Adam getting the boot. They say that after the war, Adam will have no alternative but to resign his command.



Military analysts on the nightly news programs Tuesday explained that Halutz’s move was nothing less than Adam’s notice of dismissal, a sign of no-confidence and dissatisfaction with his performance since the warfare began some 29 days ago.



Others explain that the move signals more than dissatisfaction, but also a clear sign that Halutz expects to receive the green light from the prime minister for a large-scale military operation, one that will involve more than the close to 100,000 reservists already activated for service, one that will bring IDF forces deeper into Hizbullah territory in Lebanon.



Military historians report that Halutz’s move is not without precedent, citing that during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, then Chief of Staff David Elazar appointed his predecessor, former IDF Chief of Staff Chaim Bar-Lev to take command of the southern district, replacing Southern District Commander Major-General Shmuel Gonen (Gorodish).



Defense Minister Amir Peretz supports Halutz’s position, seeking to deploy tens of thousands of IDF forces in southern Lebanon towards bringing a halt to daily rocket attacks.



Military intelligence reports that Iranian and Syrian support for Hizbullah has not waned, perhaps explaining why Syrian forces have been placed on a state-of-alert -- a level of preparedness that has not been seen in decades.



Halutz on Tuesday expressed his opinion in clear terms, not flinching at the reality that a large-scale incursion deeper into southern Lebanon would result in considerable loss of life, with predictions hovering between 300-500 soldiers.



Halutz warns that there is no alternative, explaining that if a ceasefire is forced on Israel with the current realities, Hizbullah will declare victory and the result will be a real threat to Israel’s future existence.



Most analysts are in agreement, albeit some hesitantly, admitting that then Prime Minister Ehud Barak’s unilateral retreat from the security zone in May 2000 has provided Hizbullah the stage to prepare for the current war, leaving the Syrian/Iranian back guerilla army six years to stockpile weapons and train forces for the big standoff with Israel.



Since the start of the warfare, 105 Israelis, civilians and military personnel, have been killed. 3,487 Katyusha rockets were fired into Israel, and Magen David Adom emergency medical service officials responded to 1,070 calls for assistance resulting from rocket attacks. Air force officials’ report pilots have carried out over 5,127 sorties, and foreign sources report close to 800 Lebanese have been killed.



Despite Peretz’s and Halutz’s definitive position, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is moving cautiously, with aides admitting the prime minister remains undecided. Olmert is seeking additional guarantees regarding a decisive IDF victory, realizing the past four weeks have not produced the desired results. Analysts agree that IDF forces have ‘won’ most battles, but Hizbullah has not exhibited true signs of defeat as rockets continue to pound civilian population centers.



Halutz’s move to override Adam’s authority in the northern district is a major step towards achieving such a goal. Some military analysts also view Halutz’s move as one to cover his back, realizing when the war ends, a national inquiry into the events will also focus on the operation of the IDF, and Halutz has just thrown a significant portion of the responsibility for any failure on Adam’s shoulders.



One example is the successful Hizbullah attack that set the war in motion in July, citing the lack of preparedness of northern border forces, permitting the kidnapping of two IDF soldiers, Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, who are both still in Hizbullah hands. While reports indicate the two are alive, and some stating with a modicum of confidence “alive and well,” but in reality, no one has been permitted to visit them since they fell into captivity, not even representatives of the International Red Cross.



Olmert will have to make a decision soon, realizing on the other side of the Atlantic, frantic French and Arab League efforts to impose a ceasefire on Israel are moving ahead in earnest, enjoying the support of UN Secretary-General Kofi Anan.



Adam, in his response to Halutz’s statement admitted to Galei Tzahal (Army) Radio on Tuesday evening that he is “keeping much inside,” and will “comment when the time is right,” but added “it is Halutz’s right to appoint a special officer to oversee war efforts."