One option is that the party will split up, once again, into two factions: Agudat Yisrael, the more Hassidic wing of the party, and Degel HaTorah.
Coalition talks between Kadima and UTJ ended late last week, with all signs indicating an imminent agreement. However, MK Rabbi Avraham Ravitz, of the Degel faction, explained to Arutz-7's Ariel Kahane why the situation is stuck:
"What happened was that in the course of our negotiations with Kadima, we received some offers which we felt were not great, but acceptable - the best that we could receive under the current circumstances. Our Knesset faction met with our various negotiating teams, and we asked them: 'Do you feel that more can be gained by further negotiations, or are we at the point where we simply have to make a decision whether to join [the coalition] or not?' They told us they feel they have reached the limits of what they could achieve."
Ravitz did not want to go into the details of these achievements, but said that they are in the realm of increased child allowances and the passage of a Hareidi Education Law, which will "guarantee our school system's funding and independence, exactly as we wanted."
Kadima has offered to raise child allowance for families with four or more children by 500 shekels a month. Families with four children under the age of 18 currently receive just over 800 shekels ($180), 5-children families receive 1,130 shekels ($250), and families with six children are allocated some 1,460 shekels ($330).
UTJ members strongly criticized the Sephardic hareidi party, Shas, for entering the government two weeks ago without having achieved a raise in child allowance payments. Shas claimed that it learned in the course of its coalition negotiations that such an increase would be impossible. Instead, Shas received 1.8 billion shekels worth of promised benefits, in the form of the cancellation of a planned 450-million shekel cut in child allowances, 650 million shekels in a one-time increase, and 700 million shekels whose distribution would be determined by a subcommittee headed by Shas leader MK Eli Yishai.
Political commentators say that MK Litzman of the Agudah faction, in particular, wants to humiliate Shas by showing that it was possible all along to obtain an increase in the child allowances.
The problem is that not everyone in UTJ agrees on what to do next. Litzman [pictured above, to the left of Ravitz] has said, "It's not worth it for me to join the government for this 500-shekel increase." Confident that more can be obtained from the Kadima negotiators, he insists that the cuts of three years ago be totally retracted and that the child allowances be restored to their level of three years ago.
Ravitz, however, mocks this approach: "What's this 'not worth it' approach? For me, it's worth it to enter if we can strengthen Torah education."
In sum, the Degel HaTorah faction - MKs Ravitz and Moshe Gafni - wishes to join the government right now, while the Agudah MKs do not. Their respective Torah leaders will be asked to decide, but as of now, it is a strong possibility that the rabbis will also agree to disagree - leading Degel into the coalition and Agudah out.
Ravitz expressed some optimism that there would not be a split in the party. He said that while Agudah had originally termed its demand an "ultimatum," it had now backed down from this approach.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is clearly anxious to include the entire United Torah Judaism party in his coalition. His current government coalition is fairly flimsy, including only 67 Knesset seats that can be brought down by any one of the member parties. The members are Kadima-Pensioners (36 seats), Labor (19), and Shas (12).