Though polls in January predicted that Kadima, the party founded by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon when he quit the Likud late last year, would receive over 40 Knesset seats, the situation today is quite different. Polls of the last 2-3 weeks have shown consistent drops in public support for the party - and its lowest showing ever was publicized today in a poll carried out by the Brain Bank institute of Prof. Yitzchak Katz. The survey shows that Kadima would receive only 33 seats if the election were held today.
A Kadima with only 33 or fewer seats is still likely to be chosen to form the next government, but the lost 7+ seats could mean that the coalition might be very short-lived. Simcha Ben-Shalom, writing in the new Yisrael Sheli [My Israel] supplement to the weekly B'Sheva newspaper, opines that if too many Cabinet positions have to be shared with other parties, too many "senior members" of the party may end up bitter, and pockets of resistance will begin to develop and, ultimately, explode.
"The Olmert/Sharon [Kadima] movement," Ben-Shalom writes, "is not a party, but a team that is playing in two leagues: In the minor league are some 20-25 happy people who are very happy to settle for the title of Knesset Member. But in the major league are some 14-15 people who served, serve, or want to serve as government ministers.. .
"If Kadima has 40 seats, it can choose almost any coalition it wants... The greater the supply of coalition partners, the more their price drops. Kadima can then take for itself 13-14 ministerial positions, plus Knesset Speaker, and everything else will work out... But if Kadima only has 30 seats, this is a recipe for some excitement. The threat of a Kadima-less government will always loom in the background, the appetite of the coalition partners will increase, and Kadima's share of the cake will drop proportionately. At least four senior members will have to settle for senior Knesset positions, and others will have to take minor ministerial portfolios.
"What's remarkable about the political system is that pockets of resistance in parties generally tend to grow, not to shrink... Ramon, Mofaz, Bar-On, and Dalia Itzik are not really crazy about Olmert in the first place, and some of them even think they are not less talented than he is... If Olmert's position continues to erode, we had better start getting used to the term 'Kadima rebels.'"
A Kadima with only 33 or fewer seats is still likely to be chosen to form the next government, but the lost 7+ seats could mean that the coalition might be very short-lived. Simcha Ben-Shalom, writing in the new Yisrael Sheli [My Israel] supplement to the weekly B'Sheva newspaper, opines that if too many Cabinet positions have to be shared with other parties, too many "senior members" of the party may end up bitter, and pockets of resistance will begin to develop and, ultimately, explode.
"The Olmert/Sharon [Kadima] movement," Ben-Shalom writes, "is not a party, but a team that is playing in two leagues: In the minor league are some 20-25 happy people who are very happy to settle for the title of Knesset Member. But in the major league are some 14-15 people who served, serve, or want to serve as government ministers.. .
"If Kadima has 40 seats, it can choose almost any coalition it wants... The greater the supply of coalition partners, the more their price drops. Kadima can then take for itself 13-14 ministerial positions, plus Knesset Speaker, and everything else will work out... But if Kadima only has 30 seats, this is a recipe for some excitement. The threat of a Kadima-less government will always loom in the background, the appetite of the coalition partners will increase, and Kadima's share of the cake will drop proportionately. At least four senior members will have to settle for senior Knesset positions, and others will have to take minor ministerial portfolios.
"What's remarkable about the political system is that pockets of resistance in parties generally tend to grow, not to shrink... Ramon, Mofaz, Bar-On, and Dalia Itzik are not really crazy about Olmert in the first place, and some of them even think they are not less talented than he is... If Olmert's position continues to erode, we had better start getting used to the term 'Kadima rebels.'"