A Globes-Smith poll released Thursday highlighted that a Kadima victory in the coming elections was not as sure a thing as Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert seemed to think it was when he declared, "We have already won the elections – the question is by how much."
The poll, conducted by Rafi Smith, showed that 20% of those planning to vote have still not decided who to vote for. In addition, the number of Kadima voters continues to drop.
During the course of the first week of televised election ads, neither of the large parties picked up more than one Knesset seat, according to the poll. This, despite the fact that the ad-time was dominated by the Labor and Likud parties, given their number of seats in the outgoing Knesset.
Globes suggests that the failure of Likud or Labor to gain momentum may encourage small and medium-sized parties, due to the large number of undecided voters. Many of those undecided votes, according to the report, are voters who left Labor and the Likud for Kadima, but who have since become uncertain about their choice. This could be due to the incapacitation of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and/or recent statements by Olmert advocating continued unilateral withdrawals despite the rise of Hamas. "While it is possible that many undecided voters will stay away from the election booth," the report said, "some may decide to vote for the smaller parties."
The Globes poll also noted the strengthening of the bloc of Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas and National Union/NRP, which together make up 30 projected seats.
The report attributes Kadima's slide in the polls to the public's perceptions of party leader Ehud Olmert. Asked whether Olmert was suitable to serve as PM, only 38% said yes, while a majority of 51% said no. The previous week, 43% said he was suitable. Asked for their other choices, 35% thought the Likud’s Binyamin Netanyahu was suitable, while 27% said Labor’s Amir Peretz was the man for the job.
The large number of undecided voters, combined with a low projected turnout, make it very difficult to determine the makeup of the coalition government in the 17th Knesset.
How are undecided voters planning to make up their minds? The poll found that 48% said the key would be a party's stance on diplomatic and security matters, 22% said the decision would be based on a party's leader, and just 10% said their decision would be based on the party's economic platform.