Poll: Trump leads Biden in election rematch

New poll shows Biden losing support among black voters, trailing Trump in hypothetical 2024 election matchup.

David Rosenberg ,

Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Reuters

Former President Donald Trump would defeat President Joe Biden if a new presidential election were held today, a new poll shows.

The poll, conducted by Emerson College Polling, was released Sunday, showing former President Trump leading his successor by two points, 45% to 43%, in a hypothetical presidential rematch.

Conducted over the phone and the internet between November 3rd and November 4th, the poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percent.

President Biden’s job approval rating fell from the previous Emerson poll, conducted in September, falling to a new low of negative nine points net, with 41% of registered voters approving of his job performance, compared to 50% who disapprove.

That is below Trump’s approval rating of negative six points (44% versus 50%) at this point in his presidency, according to a 2017 Emerson poll.

Biden had held a net approval rating of ten points in February, 49% approving versus 39% disapproving, which fell to a net negative of one point in September (46% to 47%).

The sharpest declines in the November job approval ratings were among black voters, with the average job approval rating falling from 72% in February to 52% in November. Among Hispanics, Biden’s job approval rating fell from 56% in February to 50%, while among whites it fell from 43% to 38%.

The poll found that if a new election were held today, Biden would struggle with large portions of the Democratic voter base, including blacks, Hispanics, Asians, women, and younger voters.

Just 54% of registered black voters said they would vote for Biden if he ran against Trump again, compared to 31.5% who said they planned to vote for the Republican former president.

In 2020, exit polls showed 87% of black voters backing Joe Biden, compared to 12% who said they voted for Trump.

Just 48% of Hispanic voters said they would vote for Biden in a matchup against Trump, compared to 28.6% who said they would vote for Trump. According to 2020 exit polls, Biden received 65% of the Hispanic vote, compared to 32% for Trump.

The poll also found Asian voters backing Biden over Trump 50.2% to 32.2%, after exit polls showed Biden receiving 61% of votes from Asians, compared to 34% who backed Trump.

Female voters narrowly favored Trump in the Emerson poll, 45.1% to 43.9%, while men backed Trump 44.1% to 41.9%.



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