Poll: Likud 28, Sa'ar 20, Yamina 12

Yamina plummets by 10 seats in latest poll, with Bennett falling to 4th place as most popular candidate for PM, behind Sa'ar and Lapid.

David Rosenberg ,

Netanyahu, Sa'ar, Bennett
Netanyahu, Sa'ar, Bennett
Miriam Alster, Flash90

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party would remain the largest faction in the Knesset if new elections were held today, a new poll shows, even as former Likud MK Gideon Sa’ar’s new party cuts the Likud’s lead to single digits.

According to a poll conducted by Maagar Mohot and released by Israel Hayom on Friday, if new elections were held today, the Likud would win 28 seats, down from 30 seats in the previous Maagar Mohot poll, published in late November, and down significantly from the 36 seats the Likud won in March.

The new party formed by Sa’ar would win 20 seats, the poll found, making it the second largest faction in the Knesset.

The rightist Yamina faction, which had been polling in the mid-to-low 20s prior to Sa’ar’s entry into the race this week, plummeted to just 12 seats in the new poll, its poorest showing in months.

The Joint Arab List would win 13 seats if new elections were held today, the poll found, while the far-left Meretz faction would win six seats.

Yisrael Beytenu would fall from seven seats to six mandates, while Yesh Atid-Telem would plummet to just 12 mandates. Blue and White would also see a massive decline in electoral strength, falling to just seven seats.

Among the haredi factions, Shas would hold steady at nine seats, while United Torah Judaism would retain its seven mandates.

Labor, Gesher, Jewish Home, and Otzma Yehudit all failed to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold, with Labor receiving 1.3% in the poll, compared to 0.1% for Gesher, 0% for the Jewish Home, and 0.5% for Otzma Yehudit.

The poll also offered respondents an alternate scenario, in which Yesh Atid-Telem runs jointly with Blue and White. In this scenario, the two parties would win 18 seats on a joint list, down from 19 seats if they ran separately.

A plurality of Israelis (46%) back early elections, compared to 37% who oppose snap elections.

Netanyahu remains the most popular candidate for the premiership, with 38% of respondents saying he is the best candidate, compared to 18% who chose Gideon Sa’ar, and 15% who picked Yair Lapid.

Bennett, who had been in second place in previous polls, fell to fourth place with 13%. Benny Gantz rounded out the top five with 8%, followed by Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai in sixth with 6%, and former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot with 2%.