New polls show Blue and White leading the Likud

Three new polls show Blue and White holding steady lead over the Likud. Two polls show united right-wing list struggling to cross threshold.

David Rosenberg,

Netanyahu and Gantz
Netanyahu and Gantz

The Blue and White party leads the Likud by two seats in three new polls released Thursday night.

According to all three polls, the center-left Blue and White holds a steady, two-seat lead over the Likud, regardless of which parties on the Left or Right form united tickets for the March 2nd Knesset election.

Channel 12

In the first poll, conducted by Midgam and published by Channel 12, if the Jewish Home – Otzma Yehudit alliance cannot convince the National Union to join it for a united ticket, both lists will fail to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold, with the Jewish Home – Otzma ticket received 2.6% of the vote, compared to 0.9% for the National Union.

In this scenario, the right-wing bloc retains its 55 seats, while the left-wing – Arab bloc holds steady at 57 seats. Yisrael Beytenu, which has pushed for a national unity government, would retain its eight seats in this scenario.

Broken down by party, the New Right would double its strength, rising from three seats to six, while the Likud would receive 33 seats, one more than it currently has.

Shas would fall from nine to eight, while United Torah Judaism would rise from seven to eight.

The Blue and White party would rise from 33 to 35 seats, while the Joint Arab List would hold steady at 13 seats.

If the far-left Meretz party ran separately from the Green Party, the former would win four seats, down from five, while the latter would fail to cross the threshold, with 0.0% of the vote.

The Labor party would fall from six seats to five.

If, however, the National Union joins the Jewish Home and Otzma Yehudit, the united ticket would narrowly clear the electoral threshold with four seats, pushing the right-wing bloc up to 57 seats, and bringing down the left-wing – Arab bloc to 56. Yisrael Beytenu would fall to seven seats.

In this scenario, UTJ would win seven, rather than eight seats, and the Likud would win 32, rather than 33 seats. The Blue and White party would win 34 seats, instead of 35.

The poll also show voters nearly equally divided on which candidate they prefer for the premiership, with 40% favoring Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, compared to 39% who prefer Blue and White chief Benny Gantz.

Channel 11

A second poll, conducted by Kantar for Channel 11, projected 59 seats for the left-wing – Arab bloc, compared to just 54 seats for the right-wing bloc, and seven seats for Yisrael Beytenu.

The Likud again trails Blue and White by two seats, 33 to 35, with the Joint Arab List again in third, with 13 seats.

The New Right party would double its strength to six seats, while a united right-wing ticket of the Jewish Home, National Union, and Otzma Yehudit would fail to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold, receiving just 3.0% of the vote.

Shas would fall to seven seats if the election were held today, while UTJ would receive eight seats.

The Democratic Union, an alliance of Meretz and the Israel Democratic Party, would retain its five seats, while Labor-Gesher would remain at six seats.

Channel 13

A third poll released Thursday, conducted by Dialog for Channel 13, shows the Likud rising to 34 seats, while the Blue and White party would win 36 seats.

The right-wing bloc would gain one seat, rising to 56 seats, as would the left-wing – Arab bloc, rising to 58 seats. Yisrael Beytenu would fall from eight seats to six seats, the poll shows.

The New Right party would gain five seats if new elections were held today, rising to eight seats, while the Jewish Home – National Union – Otzma Yehudit ticket (if formed) would receive just 2.9%, below the 3.25% threshold.

Shas would receive seven seats, as would UTJ.

The Joint Arab List would again win 13 seats, while Labor would fall to five seats, with the Democratic Union falling to four.

Party: Current/Channel 12*/Channel 12**/Channel 11/ Channel 13
Blue and White: 33 / 35 / 34 / 35 / 36
Likud: 32 / 33 / 32 / 33 / 34
Joint Arab List: 13 / 13 / 13 / 13 / 13
Yisrael Beytenu: 8 / 8 / 7 / 7 / 6
New Right: 3 / 6 / 6 / 6 / 8
Shas: 9 / 8 / 8 / 7 / 7
UTJ: 7 / 8 / 7 / 8 / 7
Labor-Gesher: 6 / 5 / 5 / 6 / 5
Democratic Union: 5 / 4 / 4 / 5 / 4
United Right: 4 / 0 / 4 / 0 / 0

*Scenario in which National Union runs separately

**Scenario in which National Union runs with Jewish Home - Otzma