Poll: Likud 30, Gantz 18 - Otzma close to threshold

Right-wing, religious bloc maintains narrow lead in latest poll, with Likud enjoying double-digit lead over Gantz.

David Rosenberg ,

Ballot box (archive)
Ballot box (archive)
Flash 90

The Likud has opened up a double-digit lead over its nearest challenger ahead of this year’s election, a new poll shows, as Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu eyes a fifth term as premier.

According to the poll, conducted by Midgam on Sunday for Channel 12, if new elections were held today, the Likud would retain its 30 mandates, giving it a 12-seat lead over the Israel Resilience Party of former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz.

The joint ticket of the Israel Resilience Party and former Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon’s Telem faction would win 18 seats, the poll projects, down from 21 seats in the prior Midgam poll.

Yesh Atid would win 12 seats, gaining one mandate over its current 11 seats, while the Labor party would plummet to just 10 seats. Labor, which ran on a joint ticket with Hatnuah in 2015, won a total of 24 seats in the previous election.

Hatnuah, headed by Tzipi Livni, would fail to clear the 3.25% electoral threshold required to enter the Knesset. According to the poll, Hatnuah would receive just 1.8% of the vote.

The far-left Meretz party would win five seats, the same number if currently holds, while the two predominantly Arab factions, Ta’al and the Joint List, would win seven and five seats respectively. The two won a total of 13 mandates in 2015 running on a joint ticket.

Former Yisrael Beytenu MK Orly Levy’s new ‘Gesher’ (Bridge) party would fail to clear the threshold, receiving just 2% of the vote, while Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu would win five seats – down from the 10 it currently holds.

Yisrael Beytenu, which won six seats in 2015, would fall to just four mandates, barely clearing the threshold.

Among the haredi factions, Shas would fall to six seats from seven, while United Torah Judaism would rise from six to seven.

Education Minister Naftali Bennett, who left the Jewish Home to form the New Right party, would receive seven seats at the helm of the New Right, while the Jewish Home-National Union alliance would barely cross the threshold with just four seats.

The Otzma Yehudit party, led by former Kach activists Baruch Marzel, Michael Ben-Ari, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, would almost cross the threshold, receiving 3% of the vote – just a quarter of a percent below the cutoff.