Likud surges to record high in new poll as Israeli left plummets

New poll shows Likud surging to 32 seats, while opposition hemorrhages support.

David Rosenberg ,

Binyamin Netanyahu
Binyamin Netanyahu

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu would easily win an additional term if new elections were held today, a new poll by the Geocartography agency shows.

According to a new survey conducted by Geocartography and published on the Haredim10 news site on Sunday, Netanyahu’s Likud faction would win 32 seats if elections were held today. That’s the highest level of support the Likud has seen in polling for the Knesset since elections were held in March 2015.

The Likud surged to 30 seats that year, but has averaged just 25 mandates in polling over the past two and a half years. Sunday’s survey is the first time since 2015 that the Likud has polled above the 30 mandates it received in the last election. In its last published poll in mid-July, Geocartography showed the Likud winning 29 seats.

Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party also surged in Sunday’s poll, rising from the six mandates it won in 2015 to nine mandates. In the last Geocartography poll, the party polled at just four seats.

Education Minister Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home gained slightly in the poll, rising from the 8 seats it won in 2015 to 9 – though it fell slightly in comparison with the last poll, which showed the party winning 10 mandates.

The haredi United Torah Judaism party also made gains, polling at nine mandates, compared to the six it won in 2015. In the last Geocartography survey, UTJ also polled at nine seats.

The Shas party fell by two seats, from the seven it won in 2015 to just five, though showing an increase of one seat since the previous poll. Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu party continues to decline in strength, falling from the 10 seats in won in 2015 and 8 it was projected to win in the previous poll to just 6 mandates.

Altogether, however, the parties currently included in Netanyahu’s governing coalition gained a net total of 3 seats, rising from 67 in 2015 to 70. According to the last poll, the coalition parties were projected to win just 64 seats.

Opposition parties suffered serious declines in the new poll, with the predominantly Arab Joint List party falling from the 13 mandates it currently holds to just 10, the second lowest number since last election.

The Zionist Union party, which recently elected former Environmental Protection Minister Avi Gabbay as party chairman, lost a quarter of its strength in the new poll, falling from the 24 seats it now holds to just 18, a decline of 1 seat since mid-July.

Former Finance Minister Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party, which won 19 seats in 2013 before falling to just 11 seats in 2015 but has been polling in recent months in the mid-to-high 20s, fell to 17 mandates in the latest poll, a drop of 4 seats since mid-July.

The radical left-wing Meretz party remained stable at five mandates.